Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate the lowest temperature in São Paulo on August 29 will likely reach 19–20°C during the early morning hours, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass with northerly flow and minimal cloud cover overnight. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 32% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively. A cold front is projected to arrive after the date, with any sharper drop to 13°C or below (28% probability) requiring faster advection of polar air than current guidance shows. Historical August minima average near 12–15°C, but the ongoing heat dome has elevated baselines, leaving limited upside for 23°C+ outcomes (1.5%). Updated model runs on August 28–29 will refine the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
13°C or below 56%
15°C 44%
20°C 33%
19°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
56%
14°C
13%
15°C
44%
16°C
5%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
32%
20°C
33%
21°C
28%
22°C
24%
23°C or higher
2%
13°C or below 56%
15°C 44%
20°C 33%
19°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
56%
14°C
$135 Vol.
13%
15°C
$5 Vol.
44%
16°C
$6 Vol.
5%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$5 Vol.
32%
20°C
$6 Vol.
33%
21°C
$4 Vol.
28%
22°C
$4 Vol.
24%
23°C or higher
$4 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate the lowest temperature in São Paulo on August 29 will likely reach 19–20°C during the early morning hours, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass with northerly flow and minimal cloud cover overnight. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 32% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively. A cold front is projected to arrive after the date, with any sharper drop to 13°C or below (28% probability) requiring faster advection of polar air than current guidance shows. Historical August minima average near 12–15°C, but the ongoing heat dome has elevated baselines, leaving limited upside for 23°C+ outcomes (1.5%). Updated model runs on August 28–29 will refine the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$174End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate the lowest temperature in São Paulo on August 29 will likely reach 19–20°C during the early morning hours, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass with northerly flow and minimal cloud cover overnight. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 32% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively. A cold front is projected to arrive after the date, with any sharper drop to 13°C or below (28% probability) requiring faster advection of polar air than current guidance shows. Historical August minima average near 12–15°C, but the ongoing heat dome has elevated baselines, leaving limited upside for 23°C+ outcomes (1.5%). Updated model runs on August 28–29 will refine the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$174End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate the lowest temperature in São Paulo on August 29 will likely reach 19–20°C during the early morning hours, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass with northerly flow and minimal cloud cover overnight. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 32% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively. A cold front is projected to arrive after the date, with any sharper drop to 13°C or below (28% probability) requiring faster advection of polar air than current guidance shows. Historical August minima average near 12–15°C, but the ongoing heat dome has elevated baselines, leaving limited upside for 23°C+ outcomes (1.5%). Updated model runs on August 28–29 will refine the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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