Forecast uncertainty from diverging numerical weather prediction models drives the balanced market-implied odds near 50% across temperature bins for Cape Town's August 28 maximum. Recent runs show highs ranging 17–24°C, reflecting variability in cloud cover, which limits daytime radiative heating, and shifting winds (northwesterly onshore flows versus southeasterly). In late winter, typical conditions feature moderate pressure gradients and sea surface temperatures around 15–16°C that moderate extremes, with historical averages near 17–18°C. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any afternoon clearing, which could add 3–5°C via enhanced insolation, versus persistent stratiform clouds suppressing peaks. Updated model guidance and official South African Weather Service briefings ahead of the 28th will likely narrow the range.