Forecast models from MetService and other agencies indicate a high near 15°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow, which favors mild air advection over the typical cooler southerly regime in late winter. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 15–16°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential amid variable August conditions. Recent cold outbreaks and near-average seasonal temperatures per NIWA outlooks have kept extremes unlikely, while model consensus and low precipitation signals reduce upside risk beyond 17°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 64%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
20%
16°C
64%
17°C
11%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 64%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$632 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$455 Vol.
2%
15°C
$1,849 Vol.
20%
16°C
$2,477 Vol.
64%
17°C
$1,015 Vol.
11%
18°C
$380 Vol.
2%
19°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and other agencies indicate a high near 15°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow, which favors mild air advection over the typical cooler southerly regime in late winter. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 15–16°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential amid variable August conditions. Recent cold outbreaks and near-average seasonal temperatures per NIWA outlooks have kept extremes unlikely, while model consensus and low precipitation signals reduce upside risk beyond 17°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,133End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and other agencies indicate a high near 15°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow, which favors mild air advection over the typical cooler southerly regime in late winter. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 15–16°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential amid variable August conditions. Recent cold outbreaks and near-average seasonal temperatures per NIWA outlooks have kept extremes unlikely, while model consensus and low precipitation signals reduce upside risk beyond 17°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,133End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and other agencies indicate a high near 15°C in Wellington on August 26 under northwesterly flow, which favors mild air advection over the typical cooler southerly regime in late winter. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 15–16°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential amid variable August conditions. Recent cold outbreaks and near-average seasonal temperatures per NIWA outlooks have kept extremes unlikely, while model consensus and low precipitation signals reduce upside risk beyond 17°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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