Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a Madrid high of 26–28°C for August 24, driven by southwesterly flow, rising afternoon cloud cover, and moderate winds that limit surface heating after a recent cooling trend from mid-August peaks above 35°C. The 27–28°C outcomes lead because ensemble guidance shows the daily maximum most likely falling in that narrow band, with historical climatology (average high near 31°C) offset by current synoptic conditions and 10–20% precipitation chances that further cap temperatures. Minor model spread on exact cloud timing and wind gusts keeps probabilities closely matched while underscoring forecast uncertainty this close to the date. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
28°C 34%
27°C 30%
29°C 16%
26°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
8%
27°C
30%
28°C
34%
29°C
16%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 34%
27°C 30%
29°C 16%
26°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$131 Vol.
1%
24°C
$255 Vol.
1%
25°C
$248 Vol.
1%
26°C
$318 Vol.
8%
27°C
$540 Vol.
30%
28°C
$2,454 Vol.
34%
29°C
$515 Vol.
16%
30°C
$375 Vol.
4%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$10 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$335 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a Madrid high of 26–28°C for August 24, driven by southwesterly flow, rising afternoon cloud cover, and moderate winds that limit surface heating after a recent cooling trend from mid-August peaks above 35°C. The 27–28°C outcomes lead because ensemble guidance shows the daily maximum most likely falling in that narrow band, with historical climatology (average high near 31°C) offset by current synoptic conditions and 10–20% precipitation chances that further cap temperatures. Minor model spread on exact cloud timing and wind gusts keeps probabilities closely matched while underscoring forecast uncertainty this close to the date. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,192End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a Madrid high of 26–28°C for August 24, driven by southwesterly flow, rising afternoon cloud cover, and moderate winds that limit surface heating after a recent cooling trend from mid-August peaks above 35°C. The 27–28°C outcomes lead because ensemble guidance shows the daily maximum most likely falling in that narrow band, with historical climatology (average high near 31°C) offset by current synoptic conditions and 10–20% precipitation chances that further cap temperatures. Minor model spread on exact cloud timing and wind gusts keeps probabilities closely matched while underscoring forecast uncertainty this close to the date. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,192End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a Madrid high of 26–28°C for August 24, driven by southwesterly flow, rising afternoon cloud cover, and moderate winds that limit surface heating after a recent cooling trend from mid-August peaks above 35°C. The 27–28°C outcomes lead because ensemble guidance shows the daily maximum most likely falling in that narrow band, with historical climatology (average high near 31°C) offset by current synoptic conditions and 10–20% precipitation chances that further cap temperatures. Minor model spread on exact cloud timing and wind gusts keeps probabilities closely matched while underscoring forecast uncertainty this close to the date. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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