Recent weather model consensus points to overnight lows near 11–13°C in Warsaw on August 24, driven by moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under clear skies while preventing extreme heat retention. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs create the near-even market split between sub-7°C extremes and readings above 17°C, reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling versus mixing from lingering winds. Historical August minima average around 12–14°C, with recent cooler advection from the west reinforcing the central tendency; any shift toward prolonged clear conditions or a colder air mass could push the daily low lower, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow would support milder values. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
7°C or below 93%
17°C or higher 92%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
93%
8°C
13%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
21%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
11%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C or higher
92%
7°C or below 93%
17°C or higher 92%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
93%
8°C
$0 Vol.
13%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$4 Vol.
11%
15°C
$5 Vol.
21%
16°C
$5 Vol.
21%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus points to overnight lows near 11–13°C in Warsaw on August 24, driven by moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under clear skies while preventing extreme heat retention. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs create the near-even market split between sub-7°C extremes and readings above 17°C, reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling versus mixing from lingering winds. Historical August minima average around 12–14°C, with recent cooler advection from the west reinforcing the central tendency; any shift toward prolonged clear conditions or a colder air mass could push the daily low lower, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow would support milder values. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus points to overnight lows near 11–13°C in Warsaw on August 24, driven by moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under clear skies while preventing extreme heat retention. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs create the near-even market split between sub-7°C extremes and readings above 17°C, reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling versus mixing from lingering winds. Historical August minima average around 12–14°C, with recent cooler advection from the west reinforcing the central tendency; any shift toward prolonged clear conditions or a colder air mass could push the daily low lower, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow would support milder values. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus points to overnight lows near 11–13°C in Warsaw on August 24, driven by moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under clear skies while preventing extreme heat retention. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs create the near-even market split between sub-7°C extremes and readings above 17°C, reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling versus mixing from lingering winds. Historical August minima average around 12–14°C, with recent cooler advection from the west reinforcing the central tendency; any shift toward prolonged clear conditions or a colder air mass could push the daily low lower, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow would support milder values. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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