Current short-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles centers Warsaw's August 24 maximum near 19–20°C, reflecting a transition to cooler maritime air under light westerly flow and scattered cloud or shower activity that limits daytime heating. Late-August climatology already shows a 2–3°C decline from peak summer values, and modest dew points around 9–11°C support efficient nocturnal cooling while suppressing strong surface warming. Ensemble spread remains modest, with outcomes above 21°C requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, and cooler results tied to more persistent overcast or heavier precipitation. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
20°C 36%
19°C 32%
18°C 12%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
5%
18°C
12%
19°C
32%
20°C
36%
21°C
11%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 36%
19°C 32%
18°C 12%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$55 Vol.
1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
5%
18°C
$45 Vol.
12%
19°C
$99 Vol.
32%
20°C
$77 Vol.
36%
21°C
$43 Vol.
11%
22°C
$7 Vol.
4%
23°C
$23 Vol.
3%
24°C
$45 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles centers Warsaw's August 24 maximum near 19–20°C, reflecting a transition to cooler maritime air under light westerly flow and scattered cloud or shower activity that limits daytime heating. Late-August climatology already shows a 2–3°C decline from peak summer values, and modest dew points around 9–11°C support efficient nocturnal cooling while suppressing strong surface warming. Ensemble spread remains modest, with outcomes above 21°C requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, and cooler results tied to more persistent overcast or heavier precipitation. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$438End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles centers Warsaw's August 24 maximum near 19–20°C, reflecting a transition to cooler maritime air under light westerly flow and scattered cloud or shower activity that limits daytime heating. Late-August climatology already shows a 2–3°C decline from peak summer values, and modest dew points around 9–11°C support efficient nocturnal cooling while suppressing strong surface warming. Ensemble spread remains modest, with outcomes above 21°C requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, and cooler results tied to more persistent overcast or heavier precipitation. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$438End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles centers Warsaw's August 24 maximum near 19–20°C, reflecting a transition to cooler maritime air under light westerly flow and scattered cloud or shower activity that limits daytime heating. Late-August climatology already shows a 2–3°C decline from peak summer values, and modest dew points around 9–11°C support efficient nocturnal cooling while suppressing strong surface warming. Ensemble spread remains modest, with outcomes above 21°C requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, and cooler results tied to more persistent overcast or heavier precipitation. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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