Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for late August 2026 point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend and lingering South China Sea troughs, positioning 31–32 °C as the most probable daily maxima for August 22. Model guidance and climatological analogs favor scattered thunderstorms and northeasterly flow that typically cap peaks near 31 °C while limiting extreme heat, consistent with the market-implied 67 % combined probability on those two outcomes. Persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects in the territory support this range, though any late intensification of tropical-cyclone activity could briefly push readings to 33 °C or higher. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
31°C 39%
32°C 29%
30°C 20%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
20%
31°C
39%
32°C
29%
33°C
7%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 39%
32°C 29%
30°C 20%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
$202 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$125 Vol.
4%
28°C
$100 Vol.
3%
29°C
$145 Vol.
8%
30°C
$166 Vol.
20%
31°C
$452 Vol.
39%
32°C
$310 Vol.
29%
33°C
$25 Vol.
7%
34°C
$20 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for late August 2026 point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend and lingering South China Sea troughs, positioning 31–32 °C as the most probable daily maxima for August 22. Model guidance and climatological analogs favor scattered thunderstorms and northeasterly flow that typically cap peaks near 31 °C while limiting extreme heat, consistent with the market-implied 67 % combined probability on those two outcomes. Persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects in the territory support this range, though any late intensification of tropical-cyclone activity could briefly push readings to 33 °C or higher. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for late August 2026 point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend and lingering South China Sea troughs, positioning 31–32 °C as the most probable daily maxima for August 22. Model guidance and climatological analogs favor scattered thunderstorms and northeasterly flow that typically cap peaks near 31 °C while limiting extreme heat, consistent with the market-implied 67 % combined probability on those two outcomes. Persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects in the territory support this range, though any late intensification of tropical-cyclone activity could briefly push readings to 33 °C or higher. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for late August 2026 point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend and lingering South China Sea troughs, positioning 31–32 °C as the most probable daily maxima for August 22. Model guidance and climatological analogs favor scattered thunderstorms and northeasterly flow that typically cap peaks near 31 °C while limiting extreme heat, consistent with the market-implied 67 % combined probability on those two outcomes. Persistent humidity and urban heat-island effects in the territory support this range, though any late intensification of tropical-cyclone activity could briefly push readings to 33 °C or higher. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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