Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies point to a daily maximum near 32°C in Shenzhen on August 20, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that outcome and 25.5% for 33°C. August climatology in the region features average highs of 32°C amid high humidity and frequent convective activity from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and showers. Current model consensus shows isolated thunderstorms and moderate steering flow limiting extreme heating, consistent with recent days' observed maxima around 31–32°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable patterns against the small chance of clearer skies allowing a brief spike to 34°C or higher, while probabilities drop sharply below 30°C or above 35°C given the narrow forecast range and historical rarity of outliers this late in the season. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 16%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
16%
32°C
38%
33°C
26%
34°C
10%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 16%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
27°C or below
$286 Vol.
1%
28°C
$24 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$169 Vol.
2%
30°C
$16 Vol.
7%
31°C
$28 Vol.
16%
32°C
$1,200 Vol.
38%
33°C
$75 Vol.
26%
34°C
$145 Vol.
10%
35°C
$87 Vol.
5%
36°C
$35 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$52 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies point to a daily maximum near 32°C in Shenzhen on August 20, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that outcome and 25.5% for 33°C. August climatology in the region features average highs of 32°C amid high humidity and frequent convective activity from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and showers. Current model consensus shows isolated thunderstorms and moderate steering flow limiting extreme heating, consistent with recent days' observed maxima around 31–32°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable patterns against the small chance of clearer skies allowing a brief spike to 34°C or higher, while probabilities drop sharply below 30°C or above 35°C given the narrow forecast range and historical rarity of outliers this late in the season. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,117End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies point to a daily maximum near 32°C in Shenzhen on August 20, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that outcome and 25.5% for 33°C. August climatology in the region features average highs of 32°C amid high humidity and frequent convective activity from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and showers. Current model consensus shows isolated thunderstorms and moderate steering flow limiting extreme heating, consistent with recent days' observed maxima around 31–32°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable patterns against the small chance of clearer skies allowing a brief spike to 34°C or higher, while probabilities drop sharply below 30°C or above 35°C given the narrow forecast range and historical rarity of outliers this late in the season. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,117End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies point to a daily maximum near 32°C in Shenzhen on August 20, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that outcome and 25.5% for 33°C. August climatology in the region features average highs of 32°C amid high humidity and frequent convective activity from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover and showers. Current model consensus shows isolated thunderstorms and moderate steering flow limiting extreme heating, consistent with recent days' observed maxima around 31–32°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable patterns against the small chance of clearer skies allowing a brief spike to 34°C or higher, while probabilities drop sharply below 30°C or above 35°C given the narrow forecast range and historical rarity of outliers this late in the season. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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