Recent KMA forecasts indicate clearing skies and low precipitation chances on August 18, shifting from earlier midweek rain and cloud cover that suppressed temperatures. This setup favors stronger solar insolation under a building subtropical high, potentially pushing daily maxima toward 32–33°C, though sea breezes near Incheon and model variability in boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty between 29–32°C. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects the spread in ensemble guidance and historical mid-August baselines near 30°C, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of clearing and peak heating before any afternoon convection develops. Updated model runs and KMA briefings ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?
30°C 34%
31°C 26%
29°C 23%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
23%
30°C
34%
31°C
26%
32°C
8%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 34%
31°C 26%
29°C 23%
32°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
$481 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$448 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$55 Vol.
2%
27°C
$91 Vol.
3%
28°C
$48 Vol.
8%
29°C
$71 Vol.
23%
30°C
$138 Vol.
34%
31°C
$75 Vol.
26%
32°C
$26 Vol.
8%
33°C or higher
$63 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA forecasts indicate clearing skies and low precipitation chances on August 18, shifting from earlier midweek rain and cloud cover that suppressed temperatures. This setup favors stronger solar insolation under a building subtropical high, potentially pushing daily maxima toward 32–33°C, though sea breezes near Incheon and model variability in boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty between 29–32°C. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects the spread in ensemble guidance and historical mid-August baselines near 30°C, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of clearing and peak heating before any afternoon convection develops. Updated model runs and KMA briefings ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,709End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA forecasts indicate clearing skies and low precipitation chances on August 18, shifting from earlier midweek rain and cloud cover that suppressed temperatures. This setup favors stronger solar insolation under a building subtropical high, potentially pushing daily maxima toward 32–33°C, though sea breezes near Incheon and model variability in boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty between 29–32°C. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects the spread in ensemble guidance and historical mid-August baselines near 30°C, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of clearing and peak heating before any afternoon convection develops. Updated model runs and KMA briefings ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,709End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent KMA forecasts indicate clearing skies and low precipitation chances on August 18, shifting from earlier midweek rain and cloud cover that suppressed temperatures. This setup favors stronger solar insolation under a building subtropical high, potentially pushing daily maxima toward 32–33°C, though sea breezes near Incheon and model variability in boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty between 29–32°C. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects the spread in ensemble guidance and historical mid-August baselines near 30°C, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of clearing and peak heating before any afternoon convection develops. Updated model runs and KMA briefings ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions