Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs point to a maximum temperature near 83–84°F in Central Park on August 15, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 82–85°F bins. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under a weakening Bermuda High, with light northwest flow and minimal moisture advection keeping values close to the 1991–2020 normal of 83°F. Lingering uncertainty stems from possible slight warming from urban heat island effects or minor model spread on cloud cover and wind, while cooler Canadian air remains too far north to influence the region. Traders weigh these short-range variables against the broader seasonal signal of above-average temperatures for the month. Updated NWS guidance and evening model runs on August 14 will likely refine the final resolution range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 34%
80-81°F 10%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
34%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 34%
80-81°F 10%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$329 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$196 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$140 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$412 Vol.
10%
82-83°F
$735 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$622 Vol.
34%
86-87°F
$227 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$167 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$158 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$99 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$293 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs point to a maximum temperature near 83–84°F in Central Park on August 15, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 82–85°F bins. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under a weakening Bermuda High, with light northwest flow and minimal moisture advection keeping values close to the 1991–2020 normal of 83°F. Lingering uncertainty stems from possible slight warming from urban heat island effects or minor model spread on cloud cover and wind, while cooler Canadian air remains too far north to influence the region. Traders weigh these short-range variables against the broader seasonal signal of above-average temperatures for the month. Updated NWS guidance and evening model runs on August 14 will likely refine the final resolution range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,378End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs point to a maximum temperature near 83–84°F in Central Park on August 15, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 82–85°F bins. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under a weakening Bermuda High, with light northwest flow and minimal moisture advection keeping values close to the 1991–2020 normal of 83°F. Lingering uncertainty stems from possible slight warming from urban heat island effects or minor model spread on cloud cover and wind, while cooler Canadian air remains too far north to influence the region. Traders weigh these short-range variables against the broader seasonal signal of above-average temperatures for the month. Updated NWS guidance and evening model runs on August 14 will likely refine the final resolution range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,378End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather model runs point to a maximum temperature near 83–84°F in Central Park on August 15, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 82–85°F bins. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under a weakening Bermuda High, with light northwest flow and minimal moisture advection keeping values close to the 1991–2020 normal of 83°F. Lingering uncertainty stems from possible slight warming from urban heat island effects or minor model spread on cloud cover and wind, while cooler Canadian air remains too far north to influence the region. Traders weigh these short-range variables against the broader seasonal signal of above-average temperatures for the month. Updated NWS guidance and evening model runs on August 14 will likely refine the final resolution range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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