Forecasts from AEMET and global models place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 16 near 34–35 °C, driving the tight 43 % / 36 % market split between those outcomes. A broad warm anomaly over central Spain, reinforced by high pressure and downslope warming on the Meseta, supports daytime highs several degrees above the 32 °C August climatology. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in afternoon cloud cover or localized convection—explicitly noted in recent AEMET guidance—can shift the peak by 1 °C. Official verification will rely on the Retiro or Barajas station reading, with the next high-resolution model updates and AEMET’s daily bulletin expected to narrow the remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
34°C 43%
35°C 36%
36°C 12%
33°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
43%
35°C
36%
36°C
12%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 43%
35°C 36%
36°C 12%
33°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$101 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$59 Vol.
3%
33°C
$259 Vol.
8%
34°C
$532 Vol.
43%
35°C
$2,013 Vol.
36%
36°C
$173 Vol.
12%
37°C or higher
$23 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from AEMET and global models place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 16 near 34–35 °C, driving the tight 43 % / 36 % market split between those outcomes. A broad warm anomaly over central Spain, reinforced by high pressure and downslope warming on the Meseta, supports daytime highs several degrees above the 32 °C August climatology. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in afternoon cloud cover or localized convection—explicitly noted in recent AEMET guidance—can shift the peak by 1 °C. Official verification will rely on the Retiro or Barajas station reading, with the next high-resolution model updates and AEMET’s daily bulletin expected to narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,643End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from AEMET and global models place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 16 near 34–35 °C, driving the tight 43 % / 36 % market split between those outcomes. A broad warm anomaly over central Spain, reinforced by high pressure and downslope warming on the Meseta, supports daytime highs several degrees above the 32 °C August climatology. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in afternoon cloud cover or localized convection—explicitly noted in recent AEMET guidance—can shift the peak by 1 °C. Official verification will rely on the Retiro or Barajas station reading, with the next high-resolution model updates and AEMET’s daily bulletin expected to narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,643End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from AEMET and global models place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 16 near 34–35 °C, driving the tight 43 % / 36 % market split between those outcomes. A broad warm anomaly over central Spain, reinforced by high pressure and downslope warming on the Meseta, supports daytime highs several degrees above the 32 °C August climatology. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in afternoon cloud cover or localized convection—explicitly noted in recent AEMET guidance—can shift the peak by 1 °C. Official verification will rely on the Retiro or Barajas station reading, with the next high-resolution model updates and AEMET’s daily bulletin expected to narrow the remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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