Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position 34°C as the most probable Madrid high on August 16, reflecting a dominant subtropical ridge with clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime surface heating under weak subsidence. This setup favors afternoon maxima in the 33–35°C range, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region, though localized variations in urban heat island effects and slight model spread introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks. Recent runs show limited cloud development or frontal influence, keeping probabilities concentrated on the upper end of typical summer values while lower outcomes remain remote absent unexpected cooling. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
34°C 53%
35°C 28%
36°C 8%
33°C 7%
NEW
$10,787 Vol.
NEW
$10,787 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
7%
34°C
53%
35°C
28%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
1%
34°C 53%
35°C 28%
36°C 8%
33°C 7%
NEW
$10,787 Vol.
NEW
$10,787 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$355 Vol.
2%
33°C
$885 Vol.
7%
34°C
$2,887 Vol.
53%
35°C
$3,502 Vol.
28%
36°C
$1,594 Vol.
8%
37°C or higher
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position 34°C as the most probable Madrid high on August 16, reflecting a dominant subtropical ridge with clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime surface heating under weak subsidence. This setup favors afternoon maxima in the 33–35°C range, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region, though localized variations in urban heat island effects and slight model spread introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks. Recent runs show limited cloud development or frontal influence, keeping probabilities concentrated on the upper end of typical summer values while lower outcomes remain remote absent unexpected cooling. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,787End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position 34°C as the most probable Madrid high on August 16, reflecting a dominant subtropical ridge with clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime surface heating under weak subsidence. This setup favors afternoon maxima in the 33–35°C range, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region, though localized variations in urban heat island effects and slight model spread introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks. Recent runs show limited cloud development or frontal influence, keeping probabilities concentrated on the upper end of typical summer values while lower outcomes remain remote absent unexpected cooling. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,787End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position 34°C as the most probable Madrid high on August 16, reflecting a dominant subtropical ridge with clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime surface heating under weak subsidence. This setup favors afternoon maxima in the 33–35°C range, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region, though localized variations in urban heat island effects and slight model spread introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks. Recent runs show limited cloud development or frontal influence, keeping probabilities concentrated on the upper end of typical summer values while lower outcomes remain remote absent unexpected cooling. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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