Current Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate London will see sunny intervals and a maximum near 28°C on August 15 under continued high pressure, yet market-implied odds favor 26–27°C because traders weigh small forecast spreads in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal influence that could shave 1–2°C from the peak. Persistent warm advection from the south has already produced several days above 30°C across southern England, but the precise daily maximum depends on the timing of diurnal heating and localized urban effects at official stations. With resolution two days away, fresh model runs and Met Office briefings remain the key variables that could shift consensus around the 26–28°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 15?
Highest temperature in London on August 15?
26°C 33%
27°C 29%
25°C 19%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
6%
25°C
19%
26°C
33%
27°C
29%
28°C
11%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 33%
27°C 29%
25°C 19%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$710 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$489 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$258 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$90 Vol.
1%
24°C
$355 Vol.
6%
25°C
$154 Vol.
19%
26°C
$474 Vol.
33%
27°C
$582 Vol.
29%
28°C
$263 Vol.
11%
29°C
$241 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate London will see sunny intervals and a maximum near 28°C on August 15 under continued high pressure, yet market-implied odds favor 26–27°C because traders weigh small forecast spreads in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal influence that could shave 1–2°C from the peak. Persistent warm advection from the south has already produced several days above 30°C across southern England, but the precise daily maximum depends on the timing of diurnal heating and localized urban effects at official stations. With resolution two days away, fresh model runs and Met Office briefings remain the key variables that could shift consensus around the 26–28°C band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,967End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate London will see sunny intervals and a maximum near 28°C on August 15 under continued high pressure, yet market-implied odds favor 26–27°C because traders weigh small forecast spreads in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal influence that could shave 1–2°C from the peak. Persistent warm advection from the south has already produced several days above 30°C across southern England, but the precise daily maximum depends on the timing of diurnal heating and localized urban effects at official stations. With resolution two days away, fresh model runs and Met Office briefings remain the key variables that could shift consensus around the 26–28°C band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,967End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate London will see sunny intervals and a maximum near 28°C on August 15 under continued high pressure, yet market-implied odds favor 26–27°C because traders weigh small forecast spreads in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal influence that could shave 1–2°C from the peak. Persistent warm advection from the south has already produced several days above 30°C across southern England, but the precise daily maximum depends on the timing of diurnal heating and localized urban effects at official stations. With resolution two days away, fresh model runs and Met Office briefings remain the key variables that could shift consensus around the 26–28°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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