Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a moderate marine layer and onshore flow limiting daytime heating in coastal Los Angeles, favoring a daily maximum near 76°F for August 14. This aligns with climatological August averages of 75–80°F at downtown and airport stations, absent any strong offshore wind or anomalous ridging that would push readings into the low 80s. The market’s heavy weighting on the 76–77°F bin (58%) and secondary support for 74–75°F (31.5%) reflects this consensus, while the modest probabilities assigned to 78–79°F (8%) capture residual model spread and the small chance of slightly stronger warming if the marine layer thins earlier than expected. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?
76-77°F 59%
74-75°F 33%
78-79°F 6%
72-73°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
33%
76-77°F
59%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 59%
74-75°F 33%
78-79°F 6%
72-73°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
65°F or below
$146 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$134 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$273 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$489 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$747 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$629 Vol.
33%
76-77°F
$2,281 Vol.
59%
78-79°F
$557 Vol.
6%
80-81°F
$312 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$204 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$360 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a moderate marine layer and onshore flow limiting daytime heating in coastal Los Angeles, favoring a daily maximum near 76°F for August 14. This aligns with climatological August averages of 75–80°F at downtown and airport stations, absent any strong offshore wind or anomalous ridging that would push readings into the low 80s. The market’s heavy weighting on the 76–77°F bin (58%) and secondary support for 74–75°F (31.5%) reflects this consensus, while the modest probabilities assigned to 78–79°F (8%) capture residual model spread and the small chance of slightly stronger warming if the marine layer thins earlier than expected. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,132End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a moderate marine layer and onshore flow limiting daytime heating in coastal Los Angeles, favoring a daily maximum near 76°F for August 14. This aligns with climatological August averages of 75–80°F at downtown and airport stations, absent any strong offshore wind or anomalous ridging that would push readings into the low 80s. The market’s heavy weighting on the 76–77°F bin (58%) and secondary support for 74–75°F (31.5%) reflects this consensus, while the modest probabilities assigned to 78–79°F (8%) capture residual model spread and the small chance of slightly stronger warming if the marine layer thins earlier than expected. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,132End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a moderate marine layer and onshore flow limiting daytime heating in coastal Los Angeles, favoring a daily maximum near 76°F for August 14. This aligns with climatological August averages of 75–80°F at downtown and airport stations, absent any strong offshore wind or anomalous ridging that would push readings into the low 80s. The market’s heavy weighting on the 76–77°F bin (58%) and secondary support for 74–75°F (31.5%) reflects this consensus, while the modest probabilities assigned to 78–79°F (8%) capture residual model spread and the small chance of slightly stronger warming if the marine layer thins earlier than expected. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions