The primary driver positioning 28°C and 29°C as the leading market-implied outcomes is the active southwest monsoon, which is forecast to deliver widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy rainfall across Metro Manila on August 18. Official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicate daily maxima near 29°C under these conditions, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting daytime heating compared to clearer periods. Recent observations show similar monsoon-suppressed highs of 31°C or below amid frequent showers, consistent with August climatology where rain-cooled days typically peak in the upper 20s. Upcoming PAGASA updates and model runs will refine land-sea breeze and convective timing, key variables that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 18?
28°C 49%
29°C 26%
27°C 23%
30°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
23%
28°C
49%
29°C
26%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 49%
29°C 26%
27°C 23%
30°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
$102 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$102 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$187 Vol.
1%
25°C
$67 Vol.
1%
26°C
$167 Vol.
3%
27°C
$593 Vol.
23%
28°C
$749 Vol.
49%
29°C
$223 Vol.
26%
30°C
$185 Vol.
4%
31°C
$167 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$121 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The primary driver positioning 28°C and 29°C as the leading market-implied outcomes is the active southwest monsoon, which is forecast to deliver widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy rainfall across Metro Manila on August 18. Official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicate daily maxima near 29°C under these conditions, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting daytime heating compared to clearer periods. Recent observations show similar monsoon-suppressed highs of 31°C or below amid frequent showers, consistent with August climatology where rain-cooled days typically peak in the upper 20s. Upcoming PAGASA updates and model runs will refine land-sea breeze and convective timing, key variables that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,664End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The primary driver positioning 28°C and 29°C as the leading market-implied outcomes is the active southwest monsoon, which is forecast to deliver widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy rainfall across Metro Manila on August 18. Official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicate daily maxima near 29°C under these conditions, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting daytime heating compared to clearer periods. Recent observations show similar monsoon-suppressed highs of 31°C or below amid frequent showers, consistent with August climatology where rain-cooled days typically peak in the upper 20s. Upcoming PAGASA updates and model runs will refine land-sea breeze and convective timing, key variables that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,664End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary driver positioning 28°C and 29°C as the leading market-implied outcomes is the active southwest monsoon, which is forecast to deliver widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate to heavy rainfall across Metro Manila on August 18. Official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicate daily maxima near 29°C under these conditions, with high humidity and reduced solar insolation limiting daytime heating compared to clearer periods. Recent observations show similar monsoon-suppressed highs of 31°C or below amid frequent showers, consistent with August climatology where rain-cooled days typically peak in the upper 20s. Upcoming PAGASA updates and model runs will refine land-sea breeze and convective timing, key variables that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions