Recent medium-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France show a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with Paris highs expected near 28–30 °C on August 16 amid increased cloud cover and light northerly flow. Model spreads remain tight but reveal sensitivity to afternoon convective timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed market clustering between 29 °C and 30 °C. Official resolution at stations such as Paris-Le Bourget or Montsouris will hinge on precise maximum readings within the 24-hour period, underscoring why traders assign only modest probability to outcomes outside this narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 16?
30°C 39%
29°C 35%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
12%
29°C
35%
30°C
39%
31°C
9%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 35%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$45 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$95 Vol.
1%
27°C
$37 Vol.
3%
28°C
$275 Vol.
12%
29°C
$202 Vol.
35%
30°C
$206 Vol.
39%
31°C
$34 Vol.
9%
32°C
$38 Vol.
1%
33°C
$10 Vol.
1%
34°C
$29 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$93 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France show a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with Paris highs expected near 28–30 °C on August 16 amid increased cloud cover and light northerly flow. Model spreads remain tight but reveal sensitivity to afternoon convective timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed market clustering between 29 °C and 30 °C. Official resolution at stations such as Paris-Le Bourget or Montsouris will hinge on precise maximum readings within the 24-hour period, underscoring why traders assign only modest probability to outcomes outside this narrow window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,064End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France show a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with Paris highs expected near 28–30 °C on August 16 amid increased cloud cover and light northerly flow. Model spreads remain tight but reveal sensitivity to afternoon convective timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed market clustering between 29 °C and 30 °C. Official resolution at stations such as Paris-Le Bourget or Montsouris will hinge on precise maximum readings within the 24-hour period, underscoring why traders assign only modest probability to outcomes outside this narrow window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,064End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent medium-range ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France show a post-heatwave cooling trend across northern France, with Paris highs expected near 28–30 °C on August 16 amid increased cloud cover and light northerly flow. Model spreads remain tight but reveal sensitivity to afternoon convective timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the observed market clustering between 29 °C and 30 °C. Official resolution at stations such as Paris-Le Bourget or Montsouris will hinge on precise maximum readings within the 24-hour period, underscoring why traders assign only modest probability to outcomes outside this narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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