Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional services currently project a Moscow daytime high of 22–23°C on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those outcomes at 34% and 39.5% implied probability. Late-summer synoptic patterns featuring moderate westerly flow and limited moisture advection support this range, while variable afternoon cloud cover and minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing create the narrow uncertainty that separates 22°C from 23°C. Historical climatology places mid-August Moscow maxima near 20–22°C, so any short-term shift in high-pressure positioning or insolation could tip the recorded peak. Traders are therefore watching the next 48-hour model updates and surface observations for the final resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 18?
22°C 34%
23°C 32%
21°C 15%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
6%
21°C
15%
22°C
34%
23°C
32%
24°C
11%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
22°C 34%
23°C 32%
21°C 15%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
18°C or below
$37 Vol.
1%
19°C
$283 Vol.
1%
20°C
$66 Vol.
6%
21°C
$107 Vol.
15%
22°C
$90 Vol.
34%
23°C
$74 Vol.
32%
24°C
$101 Vol.
11%
25°C
$136 Vol.
3%
26°C
$110 Vol.
1%
27°C
$26 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$21 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional services currently project a Moscow daytime high of 22–23°C on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those outcomes at 34% and 39.5% implied probability. Late-summer synoptic patterns featuring moderate westerly flow and limited moisture advection support this range, while variable afternoon cloud cover and minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing create the narrow uncertainty that separates 22°C from 23°C. Historical climatology places mid-August Moscow maxima near 20–22°C, so any short-term shift in high-pressure positioning or insolation could tip the recorded peak. Traders are therefore watching the next 48-hour model updates and surface observations for the final resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,052End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional services currently project a Moscow daytime high of 22–23°C on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those outcomes at 34% and 39.5% implied probability. Late-summer synoptic patterns featuring moderate westerly flow and limited moisture advection support this range, while variable afternoon cloud cover and minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing create the narrow uncertainty that separates 22°C from 23°C. Historical climatology places mid-August Moscow maxima near 20–22°C, so any short-term shift in high-pressure positioning or insolation could tip the recorded peak. Traders are therefore watching the next 48-hour model updates and surface observations for the final resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,052End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional services currently project a Moscow daytime high of 22–23°C on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those outcomes at 34% and 39.5% implied probability. Late-summer synoptic patterns featuring moderate westerly flow and limited moisture advection support this range, while variable afternoon cloud cover and minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing create the narrow uncertainty that separates 22°C from 23°C. Historical climatology places mid-August Moscow maxima near 20–22°C, so any short-term shift in high-pressure positioning or insolation could tip the recorded peak. Traders are therefore watching the next 48-hour model updates and surface observations for the final resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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