Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to strong southerly winds and a few showers over Wellington on August 16, holding the daily maximum near 9–10 °C and positioning 10 °C as the clear market favorite at 65.5 % implied probability. Cooler polar air that arrived earlier in the month has kept temperatures close to or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, while model consensus shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour observation window closes. With resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature, traders are closely watching the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in wind strength that could nudge readings toward 9 °C or 11 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 66%
9°C 18%
11°C 12%
12°C 3%
NEW
$13,732 Vol.
NEW
$13,732 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
3%
9°C
18%
10°C
66%
11°C
12%
12°C
3%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 66%
9°C 18%
11°C 12%
12°C 3%
NEW
$13,732 Vol.
NEW
$13,732 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$907 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,740 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,257 Vol.
3%
9°C
$2,541 Vol.
18%
10°C
$2,918 Vol.
66%
11°C
$1,528 Vol.
12%
12°C
$813 Vol.
3%
13°C
$470 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to strong southerly winds and a few showers over Wellington on August 16, holding the daily maximum near 9–10 °C and positioning 10 °C as the clear market favorite at 65.5 % implied probability. Cooler polar air that arrived earlier in the month has kept temperatures close to or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, while model consensus shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour observation window closes. With resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature, traders are closely watching the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in wind strength that could nudge readings toward 9 °C or 11 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,732End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to strong southerly winds and a few showers over Wellington on August 16, holding the daily maximum near 9–10 °C and positioning 10 °C as the clear market favorite at 65.5 % implied probability. Cooler polar air that arrived earlier in the month has kept temperatures close to or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, while model consensus shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour observation window closes. With resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature, traders are closely watching the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in wind strength that could nudge readings toward 9 °C or 11 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,732End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and other agencies point to strong southerly winds and a few showers over Wellington on August 16, holding the daily maximum near 9–10 °C and positioning 10 °C as the clear market favorite at 65.5 % implied probability. Cooler polar air that arrived earlier in the month has kept temperatures close to or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, while model consensus shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour observation window closes. With resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature, traders are closely watching the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in wind strength that could nudge readings toward 9 °C or 11 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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