Traders see the tight contest between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 20. Global and regional models show modest divergence in predicted maximums driven by variables including boundary-layer humidity, cloud cover, and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating over the Pearl River Delta's urban heat island. Recent model runs have oscillated within a narrow range, with no strong consensus on whether a brief ridge or lingering moisture will push readings one degree higher. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will provide the decisive observational data for resolution, keeping probabilities fluid until closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 20?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 20?
36°C 26%
35°C 26%
37°C 19%
34°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
8%
33°C
12%
34°C
15%
35°C
26%
36°C
26%
37°C
19%
38°C
10%
39°C or higher
1%
36°C 26%
35°C 26%
37°C 19%
34°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
29°C or below
$186 Vol.
1%
30°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$42 Vol.
8%
33°C
$23 Vol.
12%
34°C
$23 Vol.
15%
35°C
$0 Vol.
26%
36°C
$0 Vol.
26%
37°C
$26 Vol.
19%
38°C
$11 Vol.
10%
39°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight contest between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 20. Global and regional models show modest divergence in predicted maximums driven by variables including boundary-layer humidity, cloud cover, and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating over the Pearl River Delta's urban heat island. Recent model runs have oscillated within a narrow range, with no strong consensus on whether a brief ridge or lingering moisture will push readings one degree higher. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will provide the decisive observational data for resolution, keeping probabilities fluid until closer to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$560End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight contest between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 20. Global and regional models show modest divergence in predicted maximums driven by variables including boundary-layer humidity, cloud cover, and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating over the Pearl River Delta's urban heat island. Recent model runs have oscillated within a narrow range, with no strong consensus on whether a brief ridge or lingering moisture will push readings one degree higher. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will provide the decisive observational data for resolution, keeping probabilities fluid until closer to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$560End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tight contest between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 20. Global and regional models show modest divergence in predicted maximums driven by variables including boundary-layer humidity, cloud cover, and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating over the Pearl River Delta's urban heat island. Recent model runs have oscillated within a narrow range, with no strong consensus on whether a brief ridge or lingering moisture will push readings one degree higher. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will provide the decisive observational data for resolution, keeping probabilities fluid until closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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