Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show high uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 19, with ensemble runs split between 36°C and 37°C maxima under prevailing subtropical high pressure and limited monsoon influence. This near-even split underpins the market's close 31% and 28.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer variability in the Pearl River Delta where urban heat island effects and boundary-layer moisture can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus has narrowed slightly from earlier spreads, but resolution hinges on final observational data from local stations using standard WMO protocols, with any late steering changes from regional circulation potentially favoring the upper end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 19?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 19?
36°C 33%
37°C 29%
35°C 17%
38°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
6%
35°C
17%
36°C
33%
37°C
29%
38°C
11%
39°C
5%
40°C or higher
<1%
36°C 33%
37°C 29%
35°C 17%
38°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
30°C or below
$191 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$427 Vol.
1%
32°C
$324 Vol.
1%
33°C
$151 Vol.
4%
34°C
$170 Vol.
6%
35°C
$89 Vol.
17%
36°C
$97 Vol.
33%
37°C
$544 Vol.
29%
38°C
$46 Vol.
11%
39°C
$106 Vol.
5%
40°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show high uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 19, with ensemble runs split between 36°C and 37°C maxima under prevailing subtropical high pressure and limited monsoon influence. This near-even split underpins the market's close 31% and 28.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer variability in the Pearl River Delta where urban heat island effects and boundary-layer moisture can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus has narrowed slightly from earlier spreads, but resolution hinges on final observational data from local stations using standard WMO protocols, with any late steering changes from regional circulation potentially favoring the upper end.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,263End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show high uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 19, with ensemble runs split between 36°C and 37°C maxima under prevailing subtropical high pressure and limited monsoon influence. This near-even split underpins the market's close 31% and 28.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer variability in the Pearl River Delta where urban heat island effects and boundary-layer moisture can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus has narrowed slightly from earlier spreads, but resolution hinges on final observational data from local stations using standard WMO protocols, with any late steering changes from regional circulation potentially favoring the upper end.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,263End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show high uncertainty for Guangzhou's peak temperature on August 19, with ensemble runs split between 36°C and 37°C maxima under prevailing subtropical high pressure and limited monsoon influence. This near-even split underpins the market's close 31% and 28.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer variability in the Pearl River Delta where urban heat island effects and boundary-layer moisture can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus has narrowed slightly from earlier spreads, but resolution hinges on final observational data from local stations using standard WMO protocols, with any late steering changes from regional circulation potentially favoring the upper end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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