Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to Moscow highs of 20–22 °C on August 19 amid typical late-summer solar insolation, moderate cloud cover, and light southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating and promotes modest instability. These conditions create a narrow probability distribution favoring 18–20 °C outcomes, as increased cloudiness reduces surface energy input while any clearing or reduced wind shear could allow brief warming toward 21 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, yet recent model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns and possible showers suppressing peaks, explaining why trader consensus clusters tightly around the lower end of the normal range with low odds for extremes. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 19?
18°C 21%
19°C 21%
17°C 20%
16°C or below 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
16°C or below
11%
17°C
20%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
16%
21°C
5%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C or higher
3%
18°C 21%
19°C 21%
17°C 20%
16°C or below 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
16°C or below
$40 Vol.
11%
17°C
$10 Vol.
20%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$11 Vol.
16%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
7%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to Moscow highs of 20–22 °C on August 19 amid typical late-summer solar insolation, moderate cloud cover, and light southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating and promotes modest instability. These conditions create a narrow probability distribution favoring 18–20 °C outcomes, as increased cloudiness reduces surface energy input while any clearing or reduced wind shear could allow brief warming toward 21 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, yet recent model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns and possible showers suppressing peaks, explaining why trader consensus clusters tightly around the lower end of the normal range with low odds for extremes. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to Moscow highs of 20–22 °C on August 19 amid typical late-summer solar insolation, moderate cloud cover, and light southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating and promotes modest instability. These conditions create a narrow probability distribution favoring 18–20 °C outcomes, as increased cloudiness reduces surface energy input while any clearing or reduced wind shear could allow brief warming toward 21 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, yet recent model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns and possible showers suppressing peaks, explaining why trader consensus clusters tightly around the lower end of the normal range with low odds for extremes. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to Moscow highs of 20–22 °C on August 19 amid typical late-summer solar insolation, moderate cloud cover, and light southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating and promotes modest instability. These conditions create a narrow probability distribution favoring 18–20 °C outcomes, as increased cloudiness reduces surface energy input while any clearing or reduced wind shear could allow brief warming toward 21 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, yet recent model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns and possible showers suppressing peaks, explaining why trader consensus clusters tightly around the lower end of the normal range with low odds for extremes. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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