Forecast consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models points to a highest temperature of 28–29 °C in Paris on August 17, driven by moderating high pressure and lighter winds after an intense mid-August heat dome that produced 36–38 °C peaks earlier in the week. Official guidance shows afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C under partly cloudy skies, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong advection of warmer air masses. Ensemble spreads remain tight, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (65.5 %) and 28 °C (27.5 %), while the low probabilities attached to 30 °C or higher reflect limited upside potential absent a late model shift. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 17?
29°C 64%
28°C 28%
30°C 7%
27°C 4%
NEW
$18,442 Vol.
NEW
$18,442 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
28%
29°C
64%
30°C
7%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 64%
28°C 28%
30°C 7%
27°C 4%
NEW
$18,442 Vol.
NEW
$18,442 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$334 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$519 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$803 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,764 Vol.
4%
28°C
$2,915 Vol.
28%
29°C
$6,267 Vol.
64%
30°C
$1,739 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,276 Vol.
2%
32°C
$1,461 Vol.
1%
33°C
$552 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$813 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models points to a highest temperature of 28–29 °C in Paris on August 17, driven by moderating high pressure and lighter winds after an intense mid-August heat dome that produced 36–38 °C peaks earlier in the week. Official guidance shows afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C under partly cloudy skies, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong advection of warmer air masses. Ensemble spreads remain tight, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (65.5 %) and 28 °C (27.5 %), while the low probabilities attached to 30 °C or higher reflect limited upside potential absent a late model shift. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$18,442End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models points to a highest temperature of 28–29 °C in Paris on August 17, driven by moderating high pressure and lighter winds after an intense mid-August heat dome that produced 36–38 °C peaks earlier in the week. Official guidance shows afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C under partly cloudy skies, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong advection of warmer air masses. Ensemble spreads remain tight, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (65.5 %) and 28 °C (27.5 %), while the low probabilities attached to 30 °C or higher reflect limited upside potential absent a late model shift. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,442End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models points to a highest temperature of 28–29 °C in Paris on August 17, driven by moderating high pressure and lighter winds after an intense mid-August heat dome that produced 36–38 °C peaks earlier in the week. Official guidance shows afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C under partly cloudy skies, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong advection of warmer air masses. Ensemble spreads remain tight, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (65.5 %) and 28 °C (27.5 %), while the low probabilities attached to 30 °C or higher reflect limited upside potential absent a late model shift. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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