**Recent forecast updates following a mid-August cooldown are anchoring trader expectations for Paris minimum temperatures on August 18 around 17–19°C.** After elevated heat earlier in the month, models now indicate a stabilizing pattern with highs near 27–30°C and overnight lows in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with typical late-summer climatology for the region where average August minima range from 15–18°C. Light westerly winds, limited cloud cover, and reduced radiative cooling overnight support the leading market-implied outcomes at 18°C (40.5%), 17°C (30.5%), and 19°C (27.5%). Official guidance from Météo-France and ensemble runs show low probability of deeper cooling or unseasonable warmth, though minor model spreads in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum within this narrow band. Upcoming model updates and observational data through August 17 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 18?
18°C 44%
17°C 29%
19°C 26%
16°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
7%
16°C
11%
17°C
29%
18°C
44%
19°C
26%
20°C
10%
21°C
7%
22°C
4%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
18°C 44%
17°C 29%
19°C 26%
16°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$0 Vol.
11%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$5 Vol.
4%
23°C
$10 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates following a mid-August cooldown are anchoring trader expectations for Paris minimum temperatures on August 18 around 17–19°C.** After elevated heat earlier in the month, models now indicate a stabilizing pattern with highs near 27–30°C and overnight lows in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with typical late-summer climatology for the region where average August minima range from 15–18°C.
Light westerly winds, limited cloud cover, and reduced radiative cooling overnight support the leading market-implied outcomes at 18°C (40.5%), 17°C (30.5%), and 19°C (27.5%). Official guidance from Météo-France and ensemble runs show low probability of deeper cooling or unseasonable warmth, though minor model spreads in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum within this narrow band. Upcoming model updates and observational data through August 17 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates following a mid-August cooldown are anchoring trader expectations for Paris minimum temperatures on August 18 around 17–19°C.** After elevated heat earlier in the month, models now indicate a stabilizing pattern with highs near 27–30°C and overnight lows in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with typical late-summer climatology for the region where average August minima range from 15–18°C.
Light westerly winds, limited cloud cover, and reduced radiative cooling overnight support the leading market-implied outcomes at 18°C (40.5%), 17°C (30.5%), and 19°C (27.5%). Official guidance from Météo-France and ensemble runs show low probability of deeper cooling or unseasonable warmth, though minor model spreads in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum within this narrow band. Upcoming model updates and observational data through August 17 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast updates following a mid-August cooldown are anchoring trader expectations for Paris minimum temperatures on August 18 around 17–19°C.** After elevated heat earlier in the month, models now indicate a stabilizing pattern with highs near 27–30°C and overnight lows in the upper teens Celsius, consistent with typical late-summer climatology for the region where average August minima range from 15–18°C. Light westerly winds, limited cloud cover, and reduced radiative cooling overnight support the leading market-implied outcomes at 18°C (40.5%), 17°C (30.5%), and 19°C (27.5%). Official guidance from Météo-France and ensemble runs show low probability of deeper cooling or unseasonable warmth, though minor model spreads in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum within this narrow band. Upcoming model updates and observational data through August 17 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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