Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a cooling trend following an intense heatwave in mid-August, with overnight minimum temperatures in Paris expected to settle around 17–18°C by August 17. This aligns with typical seasonal baselines of 15–18°C for the month, driven by moderating Atlantic air masses and reduced daytime heating after peaks near 38°C earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 17°C, incorporates model consensus on stable high-pressure patterns and light winds limiting further nocturnal cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like Météo-France will refine these projections ahead of resolution, though current runs show low risk of dips below 16°C or rises above 19°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 17?
17°C 39%
18°C 32%
19°C 14%
16°C or below 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
14%
17°C
39%
18°C
32%
19°C
14%
20°C
5%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
17°C 39%
18°C 32%
19°C 14%
16°C or below 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
$52 Vol.
14%
17°C
$35 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
32%
19°C
$73 Vol.
14%
20°C
$17 Vol.
5%
21°C
$11 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
5%
24°C
$10 Vol.
5%
25°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a cooling trend following an intense heatwave in mid-August, with overnight minimum temperatures in Paris expected to settle around 17–18°C by August 17. This aligns with typical seasonal baselines of 15–18°C for the month, driven by moderating Atlantic air masses and reduced daytime heating after peaks near 38°C earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 17°C, incorporates model consensus on stable high-pressure patterns and light winds limiting further nocturnal cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like Météo-France will refine these projections ahead of resolution, though current runs show low risk of dips below 16°C or rises above 19°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$223End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a cooling trend following an intense heatwave in mid-August, with overnight minimum temperatures in Paris expected to settle around 17–18°C by August 17. This aligns with typical seasonal baselines of 15–18°C for the month, driven by moderating Atlantic air masses and reduced daytime heating after peaks near 38°C earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 17°C, incorporates model consensus on stable high-pressure patterns and light winds limiting further nocturnal cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like Météo-France will refine these projections ahead of resolution, though current runs show low risk of dips below 16°C or rises above 19°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$223End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate a cooling trend following an intense heatwave in mid-August, with overnight minimum temperatures in Paris expected to settle around 17–18°C by August 17. This aligns with typical seasonal baselines of 15–18°C for the month, driven by moderating Atlantic air masses and reduced daytime heating after peaks near 38°C earlier in the week. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 17°C, incorporates model consensus on stable high-pressure patterns and light winds limiting further nocturnal cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like Météo-France will refine these projections ahead of resolution, though current runs show low risk of dips below 16°C or rises above 19°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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