Traders assign nearly equal weight to 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes for NYC’s August 17 high because short-range models show modest uncertainty around peak insolation and boundary-layer moisture. National Weather Service guidance indicates a partly sunny day with a 60% chance of morning showers, northwest winds near 10 mph, and dew points in the low 70s that could limit afternoon heating if clouds linger. Warmer analogs occur under clearer skies and lighter winds, while scattered convection or thicker marine-layer influence caps readings near seasonal normals of 83–84°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations from Central Park will clarify whether sufficient solar heating materializes to push the daily maximum into the upper 80s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?
84-85°F 29%
82-83°F 16%
86-87°F 13%
88-89°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 29%
82-83°F 16%
86-87°F 13%
88-89°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$5 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$47 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$15 Vol.
9%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$229 Vol.
29%
86-87°F
$76 Vol.
13%
88-89°F
$30 Vol.
10%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal weight to 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes for NYC’s August 17 high because short-range models show modest uncertainty around peak insolation and boundary-layer moisture. National Weather Service guidance indicates a partly sunny day with a 60% chance of morning showers, northwest winds near 10 mph, and dew points in the low 70s that could limit afternoon heating if clouds linger. Warmer analogs occur under clearer skies and lighter winds, while scattered convection or thicker marine-layer influence caps readings near seasonal normals of 83–84°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations from Central Park will clarify whether sufficient solar heating materializes to push the daily maximum into the upper 80s.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$512End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal weight to 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes for NYC’s August 17 high because short-range models show modest uncertainty around peak insolation and boundary-layer moisture. National Weather Service guidance indicates a partly sunny day with a 60% chance of morning showers, northwest winds near 10 mph, and dew points in the low 70s that could limit afternoon heating if clouds linger. Warmer analogs occur under clearer skies and lighter winds, while scattered convection or thicker marine-layer influence caps readings near seasonal normals of 83–84°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations from Central Park will clarify whether sufficient solar heating materializes to push the daily maximum into the upper 80s.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$512End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly equal weight to 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes for NYC’s August 17 high because short-range models show modest uncertainty around peak insolation and boundary-layer moisture. National Weather Service guidance indicates a partly sunny day with a 60% chance of morning showers, northwest winds near 10 mph, and dew points in the low 70s that could limit afternoon heating if clouds linger. Warmer analogs occur under clearer skies and lighter winds, while scattered convection or thicker marine-layer influence caps readings near seasonal normals of 83–84°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations from Central Park will clarify whether sufficient solar heating materializes to push the daily maximum into the upper 80s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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