Southwest monsoon (habagat) flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are the dominant factors moderating daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 19. Persistent moisture and convective activity from this pattern suppress solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below seasonal averages around 30°C according to PAGASA guidance. Recent model runs and observational trends show variability in rainfall timing and intensity that can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 27°C and 30°C. Official forecasts list a 31°C high with a 60% rain probability, yet historical monsoon analogs indicate frequent sub-30°C outcomes when cloud decks remain thick through the afternoon. Updated PAGASA briefings and high-resolution model outputs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 19?
28°C 28%
29°C 21%
27°C 17%
30°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
9%
27°C
17%
28°C
28%
29°C
21%
30°C
17%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 28%
29°C 21%
27°C 17%
30°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$2 Vol.
9%
27°C
$0 Vol.
17%
28°C
$0 Vol.
28%
29°C
$0 Vol.
21%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C
$20 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (habagat) flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are the dominant factors moderating daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 19. Persistent moisture and convective activity from this pattern suppress solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below seasonal averages around 30°C according to PAGASA guidance. Recent model runs and observational trends show variability in rainfall timing and intensity that can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 27°C and 30°C. Official forecasts list a 31°C high with a 60% rain probability, yet historical monsoon analogs indicate frequent sub-30°C outcomes when cloud decks remain thick through the afternoon. Updated PAGASA briefings and high-resolution model outputs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$52End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (habagat) flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are the dominant factors moderating daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 19. Persistent moisture and convective activity from this pattern suppress solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below seasonal averages around 30°C according to PAGASA guidance. Recent model runs and observational trends show variability in rainfall timing and intensity that can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 27°C and 30°C. Official forecasts list a 31°C high with a 60% rain probability, yet historical monsoon analogs indicate frequent sub-30°C outcomes when cloud decks remain thick through the afternoon. Updated PAGASA briefings and high-resolution model outputs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$52End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Southwest monsoon (habagat) flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are the dominant factors moderating daytime heating in Manila ahead of August 19. Persistent moisture and convective activity from this pattern suppress solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or below seasonal averages around 30°C according to PAGASA guidance. Recent model runs and observational trends show variability in rainfall timing and intensity that can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 27°C and 30°C. Official forecasts list a 31°C high with a 60% rain probability, yet historical monsoon analogs indicate frequent sub-30°C outcomes when cloud decks remain thick through the afternoon. Updated PAGASA briefings and high-resolution model outputs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions