Recent ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models like ECMWF and GFS position 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s August 19 maximum, reflecting a stable late-summer high-pressure regime with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. These values align closely with August climatology (historical averages near 27–29°C) and current short-range guidance showing no significant heat advection or frontal passages through the 48-hour window. Trader consensus, captured in the 38.5% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ reflect the low likelihood of rapid warming absent unusual synoptic shifts. Updated model runs over the next day will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
27°C 39%
28°C 24%
26°C 19%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C
19%
27°C
39%
28°C
24%
29°C
17%
30°C
14%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
1%
27°C 39%
28°C 24%
26°C 19%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$64 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
14%
31°C
$5 Vol.
4%
32°C
$5 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models like ECMWF and GFS position 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s August 19 maximum, reflecting a stable late-summer high-pressure regime with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. These values align closely with August climatology (historical averages near 27–29°C) and current short-range guidance showing no significant heat advection or frontal passages through the 48-hour window. Trader consensus, captured in the 38.5% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ reflect the low likelihood of rapid warming absent unusual synoptic shifts. Updated model runs over the next day will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models like ECMWF and GFS position 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s August 19 maximum, reflecting a stable late-summer high-pressure regime with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. These values align closely with August climatology (historical averages near 27–29°C) and current short-range guidance showing no significant heat advection or frontal passages through the 48-hour window. Trader consensus, captured in the 38.5% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ reflect the low likelihood of rapid warming absent unusual synoptic shifts. Updated model runs over the next day will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models like ECMWF and GFS position 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s August 19 maximum, reflecting a stable late-summer high-pressure regime with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. These values align closely with August climatology (historical averages near 27–29°C) and current short-range guidance showing no significant heat advection or frontal passages through the 48-hour window. Trader consensus, captured in the 38.5% implied probability for 27°C, incorporates typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 29°C+ reflect the low likelihood of rapid warming absent unusual synoptic shifts. Updated model runs over the next day will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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