Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a cooler northwesterly flow over central Poland, combined with increased cloud cover and scattered showers, as the main driver keeping Warsaw’s August 19 maximum clustered near 20–22 °C. This setup reduces surface insolation and promotes boundary-layer moisture that limits afternoon heating, creating a modest cool anomaly relative to typical late-August climatology of 23–26 °C. Trader probabilities—led closely by 21 °C and 20 °C—reflect small differences among model runs regarding the exact timing of any clearing or frontal passage. Short-range updates and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 19?
21°C 38%
20°C 34%
18°C 17%
22°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
17%
19°C
11%
20°C
34%
21°C
38%
22°C
17%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
2%
21°C 38%
20°C 34%
18°C 17%
22°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$41 Vol.
34%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a cooler northwesterly flow over central Poland, combined with increased cloud cover and scattered showers, as the main driver keeping Warsaw’s August 19 maximum clustered near 20–22 °C. This setup reduces surface insolation and promotes boundary-layer moisture that limits afternoon heating, creating a modest cool anomaly relative to typical late-August climatology of 23–26 °C. Trader probabilities—led closely by 21 °C and 20 °C—reflect small differences among model runs regarding the exact timing of any clearing or frontal passage. Short-range updates and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$46End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a cooler northwesterly flow over central Poland, combined with increased cloud cover and scattered showers, as the main driver keeping Warsaw’s August 19 maximum clustered near 20–22 °C. This setup reduces surface insolation and promotes boundary-layer moisture that limits afternoon heating, creating a modest cool anomaly relative to typical late-August climatology of 23–26 °C. Trader probabilities—led closely by 21 °C and 20 °C—reflect small differences among model runs regarding the exact timing of any clearing or frontal passage. Short-range updates and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a cooler northwesterly flow over central Poland, combined with increased cloud cover and scattered showers, as the main driver keeping Warsaw’s August 19 maximum clustered near 20–22 °C. This setup reduces surface insolation and promotes boundary-layer moisture that limits afternoon heating, creating a modest cool anomaly relative to typical late-August climatology of 23–26 °C. Trader probabilities—led closely by 21 °C and 20 °C—reflect small differences among model runs regarding the exact timing of any clearing or frontal passage. Short-range updates and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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