Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicate Beijing’s August 17 maximum will likely reach 31–33 °C under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with possible isolated showers, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32 °C (40.5 %), 31 °C (26 %), and 33 °C (24 %). Mid-August climatology shows typical daily highs declining from early-month peaks above 35 °C toward the seasonal average near 30 °C, as monsoon moisture and regional circulation patterns moderate temperatures. Short-range model runs show limited spread, supporting concentrated trader positioning around these values, while any late adjustment in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind could shift the realized peak by 1–2 °C. Official verification will come from China Meteorological Administration observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?
32°C 42%
31°C 27%
33°C 24%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
8%
31°C
27%
32°C
42%
33°C
24%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 42%
31°C 27%
33°C 24%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
$180 Vol.
1%
28°C
$430 Vol.
1%
29°C
$560 Vol.
6%
30°C
$535 Vol.
8%
31°C
$755 Vol.
27%
32°C
$277 Vol.
42%
33°C
$261 Vol.
24%
34°C
$363 Vol.
4%
35°C
$131 Vol.
1%
36°C
$550 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$388 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicate Beijing’s August 17 maximum will likely reach 31–33 °C under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with possible isolated showers, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32 °C (40.5 %), 31 °C (26 %), and 33 °C (24 %). Mid-August climatology shows typical daily highs declining from early-month peaks above 35 °C toward the seasonal average near 30 °C, as monsoon moisture and regional circulation patterns moderate temperatures. Short-range model runs show limited spread, supporting concentrated trader positioning around these values, while any late adjustment in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind could shift the realized peak by 1–2 °C. Official verification will come from China Meteorological Administration observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,430End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicate Beijing’s August 17 maximum will likely reach 31–33 °C under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with possible isolated showers, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32 °C (40.5 %), 31 °C (26 %), and 33 °C (24 %). Mid-August climatology shows typical daily highs declining from early-month peaks above 35 °C toward the seasonal average near 30 °C, as monsoon moisture and regional circulation patterns moderate temperatures. Short-range model runs show limited spread, supporting concentrated trader positioning around these values, while any late adjustment in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind could shift the realized peak by 1–2 °C. Official verification will come from China Meteorological Administration observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,430End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicate Beijing’s August 17 maximum will likely reach 31–33 °C under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions with possible isolated showers, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 32 °C (40.5 %), 31 °C (26 %), and 33 °C (24 %). Mid-August climatology shows typical daily highs declining from early-month peaks above 35 °C toward the seasonal average near 30 °C, as monsoon moisture and regional circulation patterns moderate temperatures. Short-range model runs show limited spread, supporting concentrated trader positioning around these values, while any late adjustment in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind could shift the realized peak by 1–2 °C. Official verification will come from China Meteorological Administration observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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