Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on August 18 hinges on short-range forecast details amid typical late-summer conditions, with model consensus favoring highs near 31–32°C. Key variables include the strength of solar heating under partly cloudy skies, the timing and extent of any convective showers driven by monsoon trough moisture, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show minor spreads in cloud cover and precipitation timing that could shave 1°C off peaks if earlier rain develops or allow a brief spike if skies clear longer. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory emphasizes these uncertainties, as small shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures around the South China Sea can tip the balance between the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders weigh ensemble spreads and the next model cycle for resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
31°C 35%
32°C 31%
30°C 23%
33°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
6%
30°C
23%
31°C
35%
32°C
31%
33°C
10%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 35%
32°C 31%
30°C 23%
33°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
$182 Vol.
1%
27°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$186 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$143 Vol.
6%
30°C
$118 Vol.
23%
31°C
$280 Vol.
35%
32°C
$425 Vol.
31%
33°C
$222 Vol.
10%
34°C
$102 Vol.
2%
35°C
$172 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$94 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on August 18 hinges on short-range forecast details amid typical late-summer conditions, with model consensus favoring highs near 31–32°C. Key variables include the strength of solar heating under partly cloudy skies, the timing and extent of any convective showers driven by monsoon trough moisture, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show minor spreads in cloud cover and precipitation timing that could shave 1°C off peaks if earlier rain develops or allow a brief spike if skies clear longer. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory emphasizes these uncertainties, as small shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures around the South China Sea can tip the balance between the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders weigh ensemble spreads and the next model cycle for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,202End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on August 18 hinges on short-range forecast details amid typical late-summer conditions, with model consensus favoring highs near 31–32°C. Key variables include the strength of solar heating under partly cloudy skies, the timing and extent of any convective showers driven by monsoon trough moisture, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show minor spreads in cloud cover and precipitation timing that could shave 1°C off peaks if earlier rain develops or allow a brief spike if skies clear longer. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory emphasizes these uncertainties, as small shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures around the South China Sea can tip the balance between the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders weigh ensemble spreads and the next model cycle for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,202End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on August 18 hinges on short-range forecast details amid typical late-summer conditions, with model consensus favoring highs near 31–32°C. Key variables include the strength of solar heating under partly cloudy skies, the timing and extent of any convective showers driven by monsoon trough moisture, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show minor spreads in cloud cover and precipitation timing that could shave 1°C off peaks if earlier rain develops or allow a brief spike if skies clear longer. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory emphasizes these uncertainties, as small shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures around the South China Sea can tip the balance between the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders weigh ensemble spreads and the next model cycle for resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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