Late-summer atmospheric patterns over northern China currently support a Beijing daily maximum near 31–33 °C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Official model guidance from the Met Office and AccuWeather, along with consensus from the World Meteorological Centre Beijing, indicates partly cloudy skies and modest diurnal heating moderated by residual boundary-layer moisture and possible afternoon thundershowers. These conditions mirror the typical late-August climatology of 30–32 °C highs while limiting extreme deviations. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on the official China Meteorological Administration observation at the standard Beijing station; traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast envelope heavily as the primary driver of current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 22?
32°C 32%
33°C 26%
31°C 18%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
18%
32°C
32%
33°C
26%
34°C
10%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 32%
33°C 26%
31°C 18%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
27°C or below
$572 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$36 Vol.
3%
30°C
$157 Vol.
6%
31°C
$37 Vol.
18%
32°C
$6 Vol.
32%
33°C
$29 Vol.
26%
34°C
$90 Vol.
10%
35°C
$21 Vol.
5%
36°C
$26 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late-summer atmospheric patterns over northern China currently support a Beijing daily maximum near 31–33 °C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Official model guidance from the Met Office and AccuWeather, along with consensus from the World Meteorological Centre Beijing, indicates partly cloudy skies and modest diurnal heating moderated by residual boundary-layer moisture and possible afternoon thundershowers. These conditions mirror the typical late-August climatology of 30–32 °C highs while limiting extreme deviations. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on the official China Meteorological Administration observation at the standard Beijing station; traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast envelope heavily as the primary driver of current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,541End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late-summer atmospheric patterns over northern China currently support a Beijing daily maximum near 31–33 °C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Official model guidance from the Met Office and AccuWeather, along with consensus from the World Meteorological Centre Beijing, indicates partly cloudy skies and modest diurnal heating moderated by residual boundary-layer moisture and possible afternoon thundershowers. These conditions mirror the typical late-August climatology of 30–32 °C highs while limiting extreme deviations. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on the official China Meteorological Administration observation at the standard Beijing station; traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast envelope heavily as the primary driver of current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,541End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Late-summer atmospheric patterns over northern China currently support a Beijing daily maximum near 31–33 °C on August 22, 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Official model guidance from the Met Office and AccuWeather, along with consensus from the World Meteorological Centre Beijing, indicates partly cloudy skies and modest diurnal heating moderated by residual boundary-layer moisture and possible afternoon thundershowers. These conditions mirror the typical late-August climatology of 30–32 °C highs while limiting extreme deviations. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on the official China Meteorological Administration observation at the standard Beijing station; traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast envelope heavily as the primary driver of current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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