Recent ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models points to daily maximum temperatures in Shanghai clustering around 30–31°C on August 20, reflecting typical late-summer conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit peak heating. These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members converging on highs near 30.5°C under a steering pattern that favors onshore flow rather than strong subsidence. Differentiation between 30°C and 31°C hinges on subtle variations in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect risks of heavier rain or clearer skies that could shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
30°C 37%
31°C 34%
29°C 15%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
15%
30°C
37%
31°C
34%
32°C
14%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 37%
31°C 34%
29°C 15%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
$280 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$217 Vol.
1%
28°C
$91 Vol.
4%
29°C
$150 Vol.
15%
30°C
$366 Vol.
37%
31°C
$94 Vol.
34%
32°C
$263 Vol.
14%
33°C
$39 Vol.
2%
34°C
$23 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models points to daily maximum temperatures in Shanghai clustering around 30–31°C on August 20, reflecting typical late-summer conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit peak heating. These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members converging on highs near 30.5°C under a steering pattern that favors onshore flow rather than strong subsidence. Differentiation between 30°C and 31°C hinges on subtle variations in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect risks of heavier rain or clearer skies that could shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,680End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models points to daily maximum temperatures in Shanghai clustering around 30–31°C on August 20, reflecting typical late-summer conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit peak heating. These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members converging on highs near 30.5°C under a steering pattern that favors onshore flow rather than strong subsidence. Differentiation between 30°C and 31°C hinges on subtle variations in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect risks of heavier rain or clearer skies that could shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,680End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models points to daily maximum temperatures in Shanghai clustering around 30–31°C on August 20, reflecting typical late-summer conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit peak heating. These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members converging on highs near 30.5°C under a steering pattern that favors onshore flow rather than strong subsidence. Differentiation between 30°C and 31°C hinges on subtle variations in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect risks of heavier rain or clearer skies that could shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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