Current forecast guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models supports minimum temperatures of 26–27°C on August 21, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 39.5% and 37%. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—typical of the late-summer monsoon—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and maintain elevated overnight readings, while light easterly flow prevents significant advection of cooler air. These conditions match seasonal climatology, with August lows historically averaging near 27°C amid ongoing warming trends that favor normal-to-above-normal temperatures. Updated model runs and observatory briefings through the weekend could shift resolution odds if clearer skies or stronger winds develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
26°C 57%
27°C 37%
28°C 34%
25°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
7%
25°C
19%
26°C
40%
27°C
37%
28°C
21%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 57%
27°C 37%
28°C 34%
25°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$33 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$107 Vol.
3%
24°C
$7 Vol.
7%
25°C
$6 Vol.
19%
26°C
$41 Vol.
40%
27°C
$224 Vol.
37%
28°C
$49 Vol.
21%
29°C
$6 Vol.
6%
30°C
$28 Vol.
1%
31°C
$6 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$28 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models supports minimum temperatures of 26–27°C on August 21, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 39.5% and 37%. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—typical of the late-summer monsoon—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and maintain elevated overnight readings, while light easterly flow prevents significant advection of cooler air. These conditions match seasonal climatology, with August lows historically averaging near 27°C amid ongoing warming trends that favor normal-to-above-normal temperatures. Updated model runs and observatory briefings through the weekend could shift resolution odds if clearer skies or stronger winds develop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$534End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models supports minimum temperatures of 26–27°C on August 21, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 39.5% and 37%. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—typical of the late-summer monsoon—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and maintain elevated overnight readings, while light easterly flow prevents significant advection of cooler air. These conditions match seasonal climatology, with August lows historically averaging near 27°C amid ongoing warming trends that favor normal-to-above-normal temperatures. Updated model runs and observatory briefings through the weekend could shift resolution odds if clearer skies or stronger winds develop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$534End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models supports minimum temperatures of 26–27°C on August 21, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 39.5% and 37%. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—typical of the late-summer monsoon—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and maintain elevated overnight readings, while light easterly flow prevents significant advection of cooler air. These conditions match seasonal climatology, with August lows historically averaging near 27°C amid ongoing warming trends that favor normal-to-above-normal temperatures. Updated model runs and observatory briefings through the weekend could shift resolution odds if clearer skies or stronger winds develop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions