Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the UK Met Office and ECMWF consensus point to a maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 21 under persistent high pressure and light northerly winds typical of late-summer Mediterranean patterns, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Official extended forecasts show daytime highs near 28°C with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with climatological August averages around 29°C but tempered by recent model runs indicating slightly cooler-than-normal conditions. Key variables include any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or boundary-layer moisture that could push readings above 29°C or hold them at 26°C. Traders are monitoring the Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble guidance ahead of the observation window for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 21?
27°C 47%
28°C 26%
26°C 24%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
5%
26°C
24%
27°C
47%
28°C
26%
29°C
6%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 47%
28°C 26%
26°C 24%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C
$27 Vol.
1%
24°C
$27 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$219 Vol.
24%
27°C
$27 Vol.
47%
28°C
$15 Vol.
26%
29°C
$56 Vol.
6%
30°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$34 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the UK Met Office and ECMWF consensus point to a maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 21 under persistent high pressure and light northerly winds typical of late-summer Mediterranean patterns, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Official extended forecasts show daytime highs near 28°C with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with climatological August averages around 29°C but tempered by recent model runs indicating slightly cooler-than-normal conditions. Key variables include any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or boundary-layer moisture that could push readings above 29°C or hold them at 26°C. Traders are monitoring the Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble guidance ahead of the observation window for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$466End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the UK Met Office and ECMWF consensus point to a maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 21 under persistent high pressure and light northerly winds typical of late-summer Mediterranean patterns, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Official extended forecasts show daytime highs near 28°C with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with climatological August averages around 29°C but tempered by recent model runs indicating slightly cooler-than-normal conditions. Key variables include any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or boundary-layer moisture that could push readings above 29°C or hold them at 26°C. Traders are monitoring the Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble guidance ahead of the observation window for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$466End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the UK Met Office and ECMWF consensus point to a maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 21 under persistent high pressure and light northerly winds typical of late-summer Mediterranean patterns, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Official extended forecasts show daytime highs near 28°C with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with climatological August averages around 29°C but tempered by recent model runs indicating slightly cooler-than-normal conditions. Key variables include any last-minute adjustments to steering flow or boundary-layer moisture that could push readings above 29°C or hold them at 26°C. Traders are monitoring the Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble guidance ahead of the observation window for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions