Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a typical mid-August pattern for August 19, with daytime highs most likely reaching 31–32 °C amid scattered showers, thunderstorms, and broken cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Seasonal norms place average August maxima near 31 °C, while the current ENSO-neutral backdrop and long-term warming trend support slightly above-normal readings without extreme clear-sky conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C and 32 °C because model runs show limited variability in maximum temperature, hinging mainly on the precise timing and coverage of afternoon convection versus any brief sun breaks. Resolution will depend on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?
31°C 37%
32°C 32%
30°C 27%
33°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
9%
30°C
18%
31°C
37%
32°C
32%
33°C
19%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
31°C 37%
32°C 32%
30°C 27%
33°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
27°C
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$63 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
9%
30°C
$74 Vol.
18%
31°C
$145 Vol.
37%
32°C
$21 Vol.
32%
33°C
$0 Vol.
19%
34°C
$100 Vol.
4%
35°C
$5 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a typical mid-August pattern for August 19, with daytime highs most likely reaching 31–32 °C amid scattered showers, thunderstorms, and broken cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Seasonal norms place average August maxima near 31 °C, while the current ENSO-neutral backdrop and long-term warming trend support slightly above-normal readings without extreme clear-sky conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C and 32 °C because model runs show limited variability in maximum temperature, hinging mainly on the precise timing and coverage of afternoon convection versus any brief sun breaks. Resolution will depend on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$423End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a typical mid-August pattern for August 19, with daytime highs most likely reaching 31–32 °C amid scattered showers, thunderstorms, and broken cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Seasonal norms place average August maxima near 31 °C, while the current ENSO-neutral backdrop and long-term warming trend support slightly above-normal readings without extreme clear-sky conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C and 32 °C because model runs show limited variability in maximum temperature, hinging mainly on the precise timing and coverage of afternoon convection versus any brief sun breaks. Resolution will depend on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$423End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a typical mid-August pattern for August 19, with daytime highs most likely reaching 31–32 °C amid scattered showers, thunderstorms, and broken cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Seasonal norms place average August maxima near 31 °C, while the current ENSO-neutral backdrop and long-term warming trend support slightly above-normal readings without extreme clear-sky conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C and 32 °C because model runs show limited variability in maximum temperature, hinging mainly on the precise timing and coverage of afternoon convection versus any brief sun breaks. Resolution will depend on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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