Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and GFS models position 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Warsaw on August 21, reflecting westerly flow of milder maritime air combined with partial clearing that allows moderate surface heating. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 26°C (35.5%), 25°C (23.0%), and 27°C (22.5%), while lower probabilities for 28°C+ stem from lingering cloud cover and limited instability. August climatology shows typical highs near 22–23°C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly driven by evolving synoptic conditions. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have tightened the range around these values ahead of final verification by official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
26°C 36%
25°C 23%
27°C 23%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
8%
25°C
23%
26°C
36%
27°C
23%
28°C or higher
5%
26°C 36%
25°C 23%
27°C 23%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$482 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$492 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$13 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$16 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
23%
26°C
$54 Vol.
36%
27°C
$35 Vol.
23%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and GFS models position 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Warsaw on August 21, reflecting westerly flow of milder maritime air combined with partial clearing that allows moderate surface heating. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 26°C (35.5%), 25°C (23.0%), and 27°C (22.5%), while lower probabilities for 28°C+ stem from lingering cloud cover and limited instability. August climatology shows typical highs near 22–23°C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly driven by evolving synoptic conditions. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have tightened the range around these values ahead of final verification by official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,389End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and GFS models position 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Warsaw on August 21, reflecting westerly flow of milder maritime air combined with partial clearing that allows moderate surface heating. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 26°C (35.5%), 25°C (23.0%), and 27°C (22.5%), while lower probabilities for 28°C+ stem from lingering cloud cover and limited instability. August climatology shows typical highs near 22–23°C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly driven by evolving synoptic conditions. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have tightened the range around these values ahead of final verification by official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,389End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and GFS models position 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Warsaw on August 21, reflecting westerly flow of milder maritime air combined with partial clearing that allows moderate surface heating. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 26°C (35.5%), 25°C (23.0%), and 27°C (22.5%), while lower probabilities for 28°C+ stem from lingering cloud cover and limited instability. August climatology shows typical highs near 22–23°C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly driven by evolving synoptic conditions. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have tightened the range around these values ahead of final verification by official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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