Recent PAGASA forecasts for Manila on August 21 project a daily high near 32°C under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting peak solar heating. Model guidance and climatological August baselines around 30–31°C support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 33°C. Differentiating these outcomes depends on exact timing and intensity of convective showers, which can suppress afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C, versus clearer intervals allowing brief spikes. Official observations from the Port Area station and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 21?
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
26%
32°C
27%
33°C
24%
34°C
5%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
$121 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$176 Vol.
1%
28°C
$11 Vol.
5%
29°C
$6 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
26%
32°C
$9 Vol.
27%
33°C
$0 Vol.
24%
34°C
$50 Vol.
5%
35°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$7 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Manila on August 21 project a daily high near 32°C under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting peak solar heating. Model guidance and climatological August baselines around 30–31°C support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 33°C. Differentiating these outcomes depends on exact timing and intensity of convective showers, which can suppress afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C, versus clearer intervals allowing brief spikes. Official observations from the Port Area station and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the expected maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$381End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Manila on August 21 project a daily high near 32°C under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting peak solar heating. Model guidance and climatological August baselines around 30–31°C support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 33°C. Differentiating these outcomes depends on exact timing and intensity of convective showers, which can suppress afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C, versus clearer intervals allowing brief spikes. Official observations from the Port Area station and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the expected maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$381End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts for Manila on August 21 project a daily high near 32°C under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting peak solar heating. Model guidance and climatological August baselines around 30–31°C support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C and 33°C. Differentiating these outcomes depends on exact timing and intensity of convective showers, which can suppress afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C, versus clearer intervals allowing brief spikes. Official observations from the Port Area station and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the expected maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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