Current forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 21 will most likely reach 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 49 % and 21.5 % respectively. Late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, combined with typical August climatology of 31–34 °C daily highs, support this narrow range while limiting upside potential for 33 °C or higher outcomes. Recent seasonal outlooks noting warmer-than-normal conditions have been tempered by short-term model consensus showing modest cooling influences, keeping trader sentiment anchored near the 30–32 °C cluster ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
31°C 49%
32°C 22%
30°C 14%
33°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
14%
31°C
49%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
32°C 22%
30°C 14%
33°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$114 Vol.
1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C
$42 Vol.
4%
30°C
$111 Vol.
14%
31°C
$199 Vol.
49%
32°C
$114 Vol.
22%
33°C
$43 Vol.
5%
34°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$10 Vol.
2%
36°C
$106 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 21 will most likely reach 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 49 % and 21.5 % respectively. Late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, combined with typical August climatology of 31–34 °C daily highs, support this narrow range while limiting upside potential for 33 °C or higher outcomes. Recent seasonal outlooks noting warmer-than-normal conditions have been tempered by short-term model consensus showing modest cooling influences, keeping trader sentiment anchored near the 30–32 °C cluster ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$901End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 21 will most likely reach 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 49 % and 21.5 % respectively. Late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, combined with typical August climatology of 31–34 °C daily highs, support this narrow range while limiting upside potential for 33 °C or higher outcomes. Recent seasonal outlooks noting warmer-than-normal conditions have been tempered by short-term model consensus showing modest cooling influences, keeping trader sentiment anchored near the 30–32 °C cluster ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$901End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models indicate Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 21 will most likely reach 31–32 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 49 % and 21.5 % respectively. Late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, combined with typical August climatology of 31–34 °C daily highs, support this narrow range while limiting upside potential for 33 °C or higher outcomes. Recent seasonal outlooks noting warmer-than-normal conditions have been tempered by short-term model consensus showing modest cooling influences, keeping trader sentiment anchored near the 30–32 °C cluster ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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