Current forecast consensus from models such as those referenced by the Met Office and BBC places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 21 near 21°C under variable conditions with possible showers or sunny intervals. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where North Sea moderation and prevailing westerly flows typically yield highs of 20–22°C, rarely exceeding 25°C without strong high-pressure blocking. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting trader emphasis on 19–21°C outcomes as the most probable resolution thresholds while assigning lower weight to outliers that would require atypical subsidence or advection patterns. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 21?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 21?
20°C 57%
19°C 20%
21°C 16%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
5%
19°C
20%
20°C
46%
21°C
16%
22°C
11%
23°C
8%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 57%
19°C 20%
21°C 16%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
15°C or below
$23 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$73 Vol.
1%
17°C
$11 Vol.
4%
18°C
$10 Vol.
5%
19°C
$91 Vol.
20%
20°C
$251 Vol.
46%
21°C
$23 Vol.
16%
22°C
$15 Vol.
11%
23°C
$5 Vol.
8%
24°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$36 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models such as those referenced by the Met Office and BBC places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 21 near 21°C under variable conditions with possible showers or sunny intervals. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where North Sea moderation and prevailing westerly flows typically yield highs of 20–22°C, rarely exceeding 25°C without strong high-pressure blocking. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting trader emphasis on 19–21°C outcomes as the most probable resolution thresholds while assigning lower weight to outliers that would require atypical subsidence or advection patterns. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$558End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from models such as those referenced by the Met Office and BBC places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 21 near 21°C under variable conditions with possible showers or sunny intervals. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where North Sea moderation and prevailing westerly flows typically yield highs of 20–22°C, rarely exceeding 25°C without strong high-pressure blocking. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting trader emphasis on 19–21°C outcomes as the most probable resolution thresholds while assigning lower weight to outliers that would require atypical subsidence or advection patterns. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$558End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from models such as those referenced by the Met Office and BBC places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 21 near 21°C under variable conditions with possible showers or sunny intervals. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where North Sea moderation and prevailing westerly flows typically yield highs of 20–22°C, rarely exceeding 25°C without strong high-pressure blocking. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting trader emphasis on 19–21°C outcomes as the most probable resolution thresholds while assigning lower weight to outliers that would require atypical subsidence or advection patterns. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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