Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a daytime maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 21 under scattered clouds and moderate southerly winds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. August climatology in the region centers on highs near 13–14°C, and current conditions reflect a transition from early-month polar air outbreaks—documented by NIWA—to nearer-average temperatures without strong warm or cold advection expected. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around these values, limiting odds for 15°C or higher to under 8% while keeping lower readings like 12°C as a modest tail risk. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 21?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?
14°C 55%
13°C 37%
15°C 7%
12°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
37%
14°C
55%
15°C
7%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 55%
13°C 37%
15°C 7%
12°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$329 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$331 Vol.
1%
11°C
$26 Vol.
1%
12°C
$221 Vol.
3%
13°C
$222 Vol.
37%
14°C
$388 Vol.
55%
15°C
$182 Vol.
7%
16°C
$27 Vol.
1%
17°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$156 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a daytime maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 21 under scattered clouds and moderate southerly winds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. August climatology in the region centers on highs near 13–14°C, and current conditions reflect a transition from early-month polar air outbreaks—documented by NIWA—to nearer-average temperatures without strong warm or cold advection expected. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around these values, limiting odds for 15°C or higher to under 8% while keeping lower readings like 12°C as a modest tail risk. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,337End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a daytime maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 21 under scattered clouds and moderate southerly winds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. August climatology in the region centers on highs near 13–14°C, and current conditions reflect a transition from early-month polar air outbreaks—documented by NIWA—to nearer-average temperatures without strong warm or cold advection expected. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around these values, limiting odds for 15°C or higher to under 8% while keeping lower readings like 12°C as a modest tail risk. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs ahead of market close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,337End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a daytime maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 21 under scattered clouds and moderate southerly winds, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. August climatology in the region centers on highs near 13–14°C, and current conditions reflect a transition from early-month polar air outbreaks—documented by NIWA—to nearer-average temperatures without strong warm or cold advection expected. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around these values, limiting odds for 15°C or higher to under 8% while keeping lower readings like 12°C as a modest tail risk. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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