**Forecast uncertainty between a cool winter minimum and an unusually mild one is splitting trader consensus on Cape Town’s lowest temperature for August 24.** With the date just two days away in late Southern Hemisphere winter, numerical weather prediction models show divergence on how strongly an approaching cold front or high-pressure ridge will influence overnight temperatures. Typical August minima average near 11°C, so outcomes cluster around either a notably chilly night (≤7°C, 47.5% implied probability) driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling, or a markedly warmer minimum (≥17°C, also 47.5%) if onshore flow or cloud cover prevents strong cooling. Intermediate bins such as 10–12°C sit at roughly 18–19% each, reflecting lower model agreement on exact thresholds. Recent cold-front passages earlier in August have kept conditions cooler than average along the southwest coast, but the immediate steering pattern and timing of any new system remain the key variables that could shift the minimum by several degrees either way before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 92%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
92%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
19%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
2%
15°C
36%
16°C
36%
17°C or higher
92%
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 92%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
92%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$5 Vol.
2%
15°C
$5 Vol.
36%
16°C
$5 Vol.
36%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty between a cool winter minimum and an unusually mild one is splitting trader consensus on Cape Town’s lowest temperature for August 24.** With the date just two days away in late Southern Hemisphere winter, numerical weather prediction models show divergence on how strongly an approaching cold front or high-pressure ridge will influence overnight temperatures. Typical August minima average near 11°C, so outcomes cluster around either a notably chilly night (≤7°C, 47.5% implied probability) driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling, or a markedly warmer minimum (≥17°C, also 47.5%) if onshore flow or cloud cover prevents strong cooling. Intermediate bins such as 10–12°C sit at roughly 18–19% each, reflecting lower model agreement on exact thresholds. Recent cold-front passages earlier in August have kept conditions cooler than average along the southwest coast, but the immediate steering pattern and timing of any new system remain the key variables that could shift the minimum by several degrees either way before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty between a cool winter minimum and an unusually mild one is splitting trader consensus on Cape Town’s lowest temperature for August 24.** With the date just two days away in late Southern Hemisphere winter, numerical weather prediction models show divergence on how strongly an approaching cold front or high-pressure ridge will influence overnight temperatures. Typical August minima average near 11°C, so outcomes cluster around either a notably chilly night (≤7°C, 47.5% implied probability) driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling, or a markedly warmer minimum (≥17°C, also 47.5%) if onshore flow or cloud cover prevents strong cooling. Intermediate bins such as 10–12°C sit at roughly 18–19% each, reflecting lower model agreement on exact thresholds. Recent cold-front passages earlier in August have kept conditions cooler than average along the southwest coast, but the immediate steering pattern and timing of any new system remain the key variables that could shift the minimum by several degrees either way before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty between a cool winter minimum and an unusually mild one is splitting trader consensus on Cape Town’s lowest temperature for August 24.** With the date just two days away in late Southern Hemisphere winter, numerical weather prediction models show divergence on how strongly an approaching cold front or high-pressure ridge will influence overnight temperatures. Typical August minima average near 11°C, so outcomes cluster around either a notably chilly night (≤7°C, 47.5% implied probability) driven by clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling, or a markedly warmer minimum (≥17°C, also 47.5%) if onshore flow or cloud cover prevents strong cooling. Intermediate bins such as 10–12°C sit at roughly 18–19% each, reflecting lower model agreement on exact thresholds. Recent cold-front passages earlier in August have kept conditions cooler than average along the southwest coast, but the immediate steering pattern and timing of any new system remain the key variables that could shift the minimum by several degrees either way before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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