**Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other sources point to cloudy conditions with occasional scattered showers on August 22, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's tight clustering around 31–32°C.** These conditions align with typical late-August patterns under a moderately strong Pacific high, where humidity near 70–80% and reduced solar insolation from clouds often cap daily maxima a few degrees below peak summer potential. Historical JMA data show Tokyo's August highs averaging ~31°C, with showers frequently trimming extremes by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and lower insolation. Model consensus currently favors a high near or just above 31°C, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud thickness could push it to 32°C or hold it at 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent short-range guidance heavily, as resolution occurs in roughly 48 hours and updated JMA runs or observational trends could quickly shift the narrow spread between the top two outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
31°C 34%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
6%
30°C
16%
31°C
34%
32°C
28%
33°C
11%
34°C
4%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 34%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
26°C or below
$1,364 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$13 Vol.
1%
28°C
$30 Vol.
6%
29°C
$2 Vol.
6%
30°C
$38 Vol.
16%
31°C
$128 Vol.
34%
32°C
$26 Vol.
28%
33°C
$14 Vol.
11%
34°C
$20 Vol.
4%
35°C
$20 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other sources point to cloudy conditions with occasional scattered showers on August 22, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's tight clustering around 31–32°C.**
These conditions align with typical late-August patterns under a moderately strong Pacific high, where humidity near 70–80% and reduced solar insolation from clouds often cap daily maxima a few degrees below peak summer potential. Historical JMA data show Tokyo's August highs averaging ~31°C, with showers frequently trimming extremes by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and lower insolation.
Model consensus currently favors a high near or just above 31°C, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud thickness could push it to 32°C or hold it at 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent short-range guidance heavily, as resolution occurs in roughly 48 hours and updated JMA runs or observational trends could quickly shift the narrow spread between the top two outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,667End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other sources point to cloudy conditions with occasional scattered showers on August 22, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's tight clustering around 31–32°C.**
These conditions align with typical late-August patterns under a moderately strong Pacific high, where humidity near 70–80% and reduced solar insolation from clouds often cap daily maxima a few degrees below peak summer potential. Historical JMA data show Tokyo's August highs averaging ~31°C, with showers frequently trimming extremes by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and lower insolation.
Model consensus currently favors a high near or just above 31°C, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud thickness could push it to 32°C or hold it at 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent short-range guidance heavily, as resolution occurs in roughly 48 hours and updated JMA runs or observational trends could quickly shift the narrow spread between the top two outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,667End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other sources point to cloudy conditions with occasional scattered showers on August 22, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's tight clustering around 31–32°C.** These conditions align with typical late-August patterns under a moderately strong Pacific high, where humidity near 70–80% and reduced solar insolation from clouds often cap daily maxima a few degrees below peak summer potential. Historical JMA data show Tokyo's August highs averaging ~31°C, with showers frequently trimming extremes by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and lower insolation. Model consensus currently favors a high near or just above 31°C, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud thickness could push it to 32°C or hold it at 30°C. Traders appear to be weighting the most recent short-range guidance heavily, as resolution occurs in roughly 48 hours and updated JMA runs or observational trends could quickly shift the narrow spread between the top two outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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