Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo will experience persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on August 22, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near the historical August average of 24–25°C. These conditions reduce the potential for stronger nocturnal drops that clearer skies would allow, while humidity and light winds further moderate cooling rates. The tight market split between 25°C and 26°C reflects trader assessment of subtle forecast uncertainties, such as exact shower timing or localized wind patterns that could shift the official low by 1°C. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
26°C 49%
25°C 44%
27°C 5%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
44%
26°C
49%
27°C
5%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 49%
25°C 44%
27°C 5%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
$128 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$259 Vol.
1%
23°C
$207 Vol.
2%
24°C
$298 Vol.
4%
25°C
$812 Vol.
44%
26°C
$523 Vol.
49%
27°C
$211 Vol.
5%
28°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo will experience persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on August 22, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near the historical August average of 24–25°C. These conditions reduce the potential for stronger nocturnal drops that clearer skies would allow, while humidity and light winds further moderate cooling rates. The tight market split between 25°C and 26°C reflects trader assessment of subtle forecast uncertainties, such as exact shower timing or localized wind patterns that could shift the official low by 1°C. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$3,073End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo will experience persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on August 22, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near the historical August average of 24–25°C. These conditions reduce the potential for stronger nocturnal drops that clearer skies would allow, while humidity and light winds further moderate cooling rates. The tight market split between 25°C and 26°C reflects trader assessment of subtle forecast uncertainties, such as exact shower timing or localized wind patterns that could shift the official low by 1°C. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,073End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo will experience persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on August 22, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near the historical August average of 24–25°C. These conditions reduce the potential for stronger nocturnal drops that clearer skies would allow, while humidity and light winds further moderate cooling rates. The tight market split between 25°C and 26°C reflects trader assessment of subtle forecast uncertainties, such as exact shower timing or localized wind patterns that could shift the official low by 1°C. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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