Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position coastal Los Angeles highs near 78–82°F on August 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin at 41.5% implied probability. Persistent marine-layer influence and onshore flow are limiting afternoon warming, consistent with typical late-summer climatology at the official Los Angeles station. A broader inland heat wave beginning that day has minimal coastal penetration, keeping the probability of 84°F+ outcomes below 10%. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 20?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 20?
80-81°F 44%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 21%
86-87°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
44%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 44%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 21%
86-87°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
75°F or below
$32 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$12 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$222 Vol.
30%
80-81°F
$956 Vol.
44%
82-83°F
$86 Vol.
21%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$37 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$50 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$40 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$219 Vol.
1%
94°F or higher
$315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position coastal Los Angeles highs near 78–82°F on August 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin at 41.5% implied probability. Persistent marine-layer influence and onshore flow are limiting afternoon warming, consistent with typical late-summer climatology at the official Los Angeles station. A broader inland heat wave beginning that day has minimal coastal penetration, keeping the probability of 84°F+ outcomes below 10%. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,921End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position coastal Los Angeles highs near 78–82°F on August 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin at 41.5% implied probability. Persistent marine-layer influence and onshore flow are limiting afternoon warming, consistent with typical late-summer climatology at the official Los Angeles station. A broader inland heat wave beginning that day has minimal coastal penetration, keeping the probability of 84°F+ outcomes below 10%. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,921End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position coastal Los Angeles highs near 78–82°F on August 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin at 41.5% implied probability. Persistent marine-layer influence and onshore flow are limiting afternoon warming, consistent with typical late-summer climatology at the official Los Angeles station. A broader inland heat wave beginning that day has minimal coastal penetration, keeping the probability of 84°F+ outcomes below 10%. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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