Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a high near 78–80°F for New York City on August 21, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 78–81°F. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on August 20 have increased soil moisture and cloud cover, promoting evaporative cooling and limiting daytime heating under partly sunny skies. Northeasterly winds of 5–10 mph advect cooler, more humid maritime air from the Atlantic, while the mid-August climatological baseline of roughly 79–82°F highs provides context for modest deviations. Model consensus shows limited spread due to stable steering patterns and no strong warm-air advection, keeping resolution likely within the 76–83°F range absent unexpected clearing or wind shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 21?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 21?
78-79°F 33%
80-81°F 29%
76-77°F 23%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
29%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 33%
80-81°F 29%
76-77°F 23%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
71°F or below
$262 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$294 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$376 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$345 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$317 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$962 Vol.
29%
82-83°F
$843 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$123 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$184 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$663 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$821 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a high near 78–80°F for New York City on August 21, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 78–81°F. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on August 20 have increased soil moisture and cloud cover, promoting evaporative cooling and limiting daytime heating under partly sunny skies. Northeasterly winds of 5–10 mph advect cooler, more humid maritime air from the Atlantic, while the mid-August climatological baseline of roughly 79–82°F highs provides context for modest deviations. Model consensus shows limited spread due to stable steering patterns and no strong warm-air advection, keeping resolution likely within the 76–83°F range absent unexpected clearing or wind shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,190End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a high near 78–80°F for New York City on August 21, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 78–81°F. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on August 20 have increased soil moisture and cloud cover, promoting evaporative cooling and limiting daytime heating under partly sunny skies. Northeasterly winds of 5–10 mph advect cooler, more humid maritime air from the Atlantic, while the mid-August climatological baseline of roughly 79–82°F highs provides context for modest deviations. Model consensus shows limited spread due to stable steering patterns and no strong warm-air advection, keeping resolution likely within the 76–83°F range absent unexpected clearing or wind shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,190End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a high near 78–80°F for New York City on August 21, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 78–81°F. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on August 20 have increased soil moisture and cloud cover, promoting evaporative cooling and limiting daytime heating under partly sunny skies. Northeasterly winds of 5–10 mph advect cooler, more humid maritime air from the Atlantic, while the mid-August climatological baseline of roughly 79–82°F highs provides context for modest deviations. Model consensus shows limited spread due to stable steering patterns and no strong warm-air advection, keeping resolution likely within the 76–83°F range absent unexpected clearing or wind shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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