Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the New York metro area points to a mild overnight period with the minimum temperature in Central Park expected near 67–69 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 68–69 °F outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Late-August climatology shows average lows of 67 °F, and current model consensus indicates light winds, limited cloud cover, and no strong cold advection to drive further cooling. Shorter-range runs continue to cluster in the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the secondary 66–67 °F bucket at 24.5 %. Any late adjustment in the 0z or 12z model suite or unexpected boundary-layer mixing could shift the distribution, but present observations and forecast guidance favor the upper-60s range as the most probable resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 21?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 21?
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 22%
70-71°F 16%
64-65°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
42%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
1%
76°F or higher
1%
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 22%
70-71°F 16%
64-65°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
57°F or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$10 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$15 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$51 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$104 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$6 Vol.
22%
68-69°F
$57 Vol.
42%
70-71°F
$121 Vol.
16%
72-73°F
$140 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$238 Vol.
1%
76°F or higher
$158 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the New York metro area points to a mild overnight period with the minimum temperature in Central Park expected near 67–69 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 68–69 °F outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Late-August climatology shows average lows of 67 °F, and current model consensus indicates light winds, limited cloud cover, and no strong cold advection to drive further cooling. Shorter-range runs continue to cluster in the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the secondary 66–67 °F bucket at 24.5 %. Any late adjustment in the 0z or 12z model suite or unexpected boundary-layer mixing could shift the distribution, but present observations and forecast guidance favor the upper-60s range as the most probable resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,070End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the New York metro area points to a mild overnight period with the minimum temperature in Central Park expected near 67–69 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 68–69 °F outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Late-August climatology shows average lows of 67 °F, and current model consensus indicates light winds, limited cloud cover, and no strong cold advection to drive further cooling. Shorter-range runs continue to cluster in the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the secondary 66–67 °F bucket at 24.5 %. Any late adjustment in the 0z or 12z model suite or unexpected boundary-layer mixing could shift the distribution, but present observations and forecast guidance favor the upper-60s range as the most probable resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,070End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for the New York metro area points to a mild overnight period with the minimum temperature in Central Park expected near 67–69 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 68–69 °F outcome at 41.5 % implied probability. Late-August climatology shows average lows of 67 °F, and current model consensus indicates light winds, limited cloud cover, and no strong cold advection to drive further cooling. Shorter-range runs continue to cluster in the mid-to-upper 60s, supporting the secondary 66–67 °F bucket at 24.5 %. Any late adjustment in the 0z or 12z model suite or unexpected boundary-layer mixing could shift the distribution, but present observations and forecast guidance favor the upper-60s range as the most probable resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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