National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position 92–95°F as the most probable range for Denver’s August 22 high, reflecting above-normal late-summer warmth driven by a strong ridge of high pressure and downslope westerly flow. Recent observations show Denver exceeding seasonal normals (87°F average high) amid scattered thunderstorms that have failed to produce significant cooling, consistent with the 35.5% market-implied probability for 92–93°F and combined 43% for the adjacent bins. Traders weigh the risk of convective cooling or a modest trough passage that could cap temperatures near 90°F against the potential for clearer skies and stronger heating that pushes readings into the mid-90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings expected within the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on August 22?
Highest temperature in Denver on August 22?
92-93°F 36%
90-91°F 22%
94-95°F 21%
96-97°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
22%
92-93°F
36%
94-95°F
21%
96-97°F
8%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
4%
102-103°F
1%
104°F or higher
<1%
92-93°F 36%
90-91°F 22%
94-95°F 21%
96-97°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
85°F or below
$82 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$26 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$1 Vol.
5%
90-91°F
$40 Vol.
22%
92-93°F
$2 Vol.
36%
94-95°F
$601 Vol.
21%
96-97°F
$231 Vol.
8%
98-99°F
$197 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$36 Vol.
4%
102-103°F
$45 Vol.
1%
104°F or higher
$822 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position 92–95°F as the most probable range for Denver’s August 22 high, reflecting above-normal late-summer warmth driven by a strong ridge of high pressure and downslope westerly flow. Recent observations show Denver exceeding seasonal normals (87°F average high) amid scattered thunderstorms that have failed to produce significant cooling, consistent with the 35.5% market-implied probability for 92–93°F and combined 43% for the adjacent bins. Traders weigh the risk of convective cooling or a modest trough passage that could cap temperatures near 90°F against the potential for clearer skies and stronger heating that pushes readings into the mid-90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings expected within the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,083End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position 92–95°F as the most probable range for Denver’s August 22 high, reflecting above-normal late-summer warmth driven by a strong ridge of high pressure and downslope westerly flow. Recent observations show Denver exceeding seasonal normals (87°F average high) amid scattered thunderstorms that have failed to produce significant cooling, consistent with the 35.5% market-implied probability for 92–93°F and combined 43% for the adjacent bins. Traders weigh the risk of convective cooling or a modest trough passage that could cap temperatures near 90°F against the potential for clearer skies and stronger heating that pushes readings into the mid-90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings expected within the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,083End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position 92–95°F as the most probable range for Denver’s August 22 high, reflecting above-normal late-summer warmth driven by a strong ridge of high pressure and downslope westerly flow. Recent observations show Denver exceeding seasonal normals (87°F average high) amid scattered thunderstorms that have failed to produce significant cooling, consistent with the 35.5% market-implied probability for 92–93°F and combined 43% for the adjacent bins. Traders weigh the risk of convective cooling or a modest trough passage that could cap temperatures near 90°F against the potential for clearer skies and stronger heating that pushes readings into the mid-90s. Updated model runs and NWS briefings expected within the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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