Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate Shanghai highs near 30–33°C (86–91°F) on August 21, with thundershowers, overcast skies, and moderate humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon season. These conditions favor the market's leading outcomes of 31°C (40.5% implied probability) and 30°C (28.5%), as cloud cover and precipitation suppress peak heating while sea-breeze effects and regional moisture limit extremes. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but current model consensus shows no strong heatwave setup, keeping 32°C and higher at lower probabilities. Updated numerical weather predictions expected in the next 24–48 hours could shift odds if steering patterns or rainfall amounts change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?
31°C 41%
30°C 29%
32°C 16%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
29%
31°C
41%
32°C
16%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 41%
30°C 29%
32°C 16%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
$336 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$842 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$174 Vol.
1%
28°C
$37 Vol.
4%
29°C
$419 Vol.
12%
30°C
$280 Vol.
29%
31°C
$158 Vol.
41%
32°C
$483 Vol.
16%
33°C
$12 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate Shanghai highs near 30–33°C (86–91°F) on August 21, with thundershowers, overcast skies, and moderate humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon season. These conditions favor the market's leading outcomes of 31°C (40.5% implied probability) and 30°C (28.5%), as cloud cover and precipitation suppress peak heating while sea-breeze effects and regional moisture limit extremes. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but current model consensus shows no strong heatwave setup, keeping 32°C and higher at lower probabilities. Updated numerical weather predictions expected in the next 24–48 hours could shift odds if steering patterns or rainfall amounts change.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,225End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate Shanghai highs near 30–33°C (86–91°F) on August 21, with thundershowers, overcast skies, and moderate humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon season. These conditions favor the market's leading outcomes of 31°C (40.5% implied probability) and 30°C (28.5%), as cloud cover and precipitation suppress peak heating while sea-breeze effects and regional moisture limit extremes. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but current model consensus shows no strong heatwave setup, keeping 32°C and higher at lower probabilities. Updated numerical weather predictions expected in the next 24–48 hours could shift odds if steering patterns or rainfall amounts change.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,225End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate Shanghai highs near 30–33°C (86–91°F) on August 21, with thundershowers, overcast skies, and moderate humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon season. These conditions favor the market's leading outcomes of 31°C (40.5% implied probability) and 30°C (28.5%), as cloud cover and precipitation suppress peak heating while sea-breeze effects and regional moisture limit extremes. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but current model consensus shows no strong heatwave setup, keeping 32°C and higher at lower probabilities. Updated numerical weather predictions expected in the next 24–48 hours could shift odds if steering patterns or rainfall amounts change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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