**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21, 2026, centers on 27°C as the clear leader (58% implied probability), followed by 26°C (20.5%) and 28°C (17.5%).** These align closely with current meteorological consensus for a typical late-August subtropical night in the region. Shanghai’s climate features high humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimums clustered near seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Multiple forecasts, including extended outlooks and recent daily guidance, project overnight lows or daily minima around 25–27°C for August 21, with possible thundershowers or overcast conditions further moderating temperature drops. Historical data for the final third of August reinforces this range, with average lows near 25–26°C and only modest day-to-day variability absent strong frontal systems. No major typhoon or cold-air intrusion appears imminent in near-term model runs, supporting the narrow distribution around 26–28°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders weighting official guidance and ensemble forecasts, which carry inherent uncertainty from evolving precipitation timing and local urban heat-island effects. Resolution will hinge on the official recorded minimum from Shanghai meteorological stations on the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?
27°C 53%
26°C 35%
28°C 19%
25°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
29%
27°C
53%
28°C
17%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 53%
26°C 35%
28°C 19%
25°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$217 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$452 Vol.
1%
25°C
$231 Vol.
2%
26°C
$485 Vol.
29%
27°C
$1,049 Vol.
53%
28°C
$1,562 Vol.
17%
29°C
$148 Vol.
1%
30°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21, 2026, centers on 27°C as the clear leader (58% implied probability), followed by 26°C (20.5%) and 28°C (17.5%).** These align closely with current meteorological consensus for a typical late-August subtropical night in the region.
Shanghai’s climate features high humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimums clustered near seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Multiple forecasts, including extended outlooks and recent daily guidance, project overnight lows or daily minima around 25–27°C for August 21, with possible thundershowers or overcast conditions further moderating temperature drops. Historical data for the final third of August reinforces this range, with average lows near 25–26°C and only modest day-to-day variability absent strong frontal systems.
No major typhoon or cold-air intrusion appears imminent in near-term model runs, supporting the narrow distribution around 26–28°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders weighting official guidance and ensemble forecasts, which carry inherent uncertainty from evolving precipitation timing and local urban heat-island effects. Resolution will hinge on the official recorded minimum from Shanghai meteorological stations on the calendar day.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$4,837End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21, 2026, centers on 27°C as the clear leader (58% implied probability), followed by 26°C (20.5%) and 28°C (17.5%).** These align closely with current meteorological consensus for a typical late-August subtropical night in the region.
Shanghai’s climate features high humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimums clustered near seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Multiple forecasts, including extended outlooks and recent daily guidance, project overnight lows or daily minima around 25–27°C for August 21, with possible thundershowers or overcast conditions further moderating temperature drops. Historical data for the final third of August reinforces this range, with average lows near 25–26°C and only modest day-to-day variability absent strong frontal systems.
No major typhoon or cold-air intrusion appears imminent in near-term model runs, supporting the narrow distribution around 26–28°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders weighting official guidance and ensemble forecasts, which carry inherent uncertainty from evolving precipitation timing and local urban heat-island effects. Resolution will hinge on the official recorded minimum from Shanghai meteorological stations on the calendar day.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,837End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 21, 2026, centers on 27°C as the clear leader (58% implied probability), followed by 26°C (20.5%) and 28°C (17.5%).** These align closely with current meteorological consensus for a typical late-August subtropical night in the region. Shanghai’s climate features high humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimums clustered near seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Multiple forecasts, including extended outlooks and recent daily guidance, project overnight lows or daily minima around 25–27°C for August 21, with possible thundershowers or overcast conditions further moderating temperature drops. Historical data for the final third of August reinforces this range, with average lows near 25–26°C and only modest day-to-day variability absent strong frontal systems. No major typhoon or cold-air intrusion appears imminent in near-term model runs, supporting the narrow distribution around 26–28°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders weighting official guidance and ensemble forecasts, which carry inherent uncertainty from evolving precipitation timing and local urban heat-island effects. Resolution will hinge on the official recorded minimum from Shanghai meteorological stations on the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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