Forecast models from major agencies including the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Moscow high of 22–23 °C for August 23, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region centers near 21–23 °C, and the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or warm advection from the south has kept projected maxima close to seasonal norms rather than the upper-20s occasionally seen earlier in the month. Recent model runs show only minor spread, with ensemble means stable over the past 48 hours and no significant Atlantic low-pressure intrusion expected before the 23rd. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C (50 %) and 22 °C (31.5 %), reflecting the tight consensus around these values and limited upside risk for 24 °C or higher under current steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
23°C 50%
22°C 24%
24°C 16%
17°C or below 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
17°C or below
13%
18°C
7%
19°C
2%
20°C
6%
21°C
4%
22°C
24%
23°C
50%
24°C
16%
25°C
4%
26°C
6%
27°C or higher
9%
23°C 50%
22°C 24%
24°C 16%
17°C or below 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
17°C or below
$20 Vol.
13%
18°C
$20 Vol.
7%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$332 Vol.
6%
21°C
$53 Vol.
4%
22°C
$69 Vol.
24%
23°C
$69 Vol.
50%
24°C
$37 Vol.
16%
25°C
$30 Vol.
4%
26°C
$36 Vol.
6%
27°C or higher
$25 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major agencies including the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Moscow high of 22–23 °C for August 23, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region centers near 21–23 °C, and the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or warm advection from the south has kept projected maxima close to seasonal norms rather than the upper-20s occasionally seen earlier in the month. Recent model runs show only minor spread, with ensemble means stable over the past 48 hours and no significant Atlantic low-pressure intrusion expected before the 23rd. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C (50 %) and 22 °C (31.5 %), reflecting the tight consensus around these values and limited upside risk for 24 °C or higher under current steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$686End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major agencies including the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Moscow high of 22–23 °C for August 23, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region centers near 21–23 °C, and the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or warm advection from the south has kept projected maxima close to seasonal norms rather than the upper-20s occasionally seen earlier in the month. Recent model runs show only minor spread, with ensemble means stable over the past 48 hours and no significant Atlantic low-pressure intrusion expected before the 23rd. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C (50 %) and 22 °C (31.5 %), reflecting the tight consensus around these values and limited upside risk for 24 °C or higher under current steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$686End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from major agencies including the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Moscow high of 22–23 °C for August 23, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region centers near 21–23 °C, and the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or warm advection from the south has kept projected maxima close to seasonal norms rather than the upper-20s occasionally seen earlier in the month. Recent model runs show only minor spread, with ensemble means stable over the past 48 hours and no significant Atlantic low-pressure intrusion expected before the 23rd. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C (50 %) and 22 °C (31.5 %), reflecting the tight consensus around these values and limited upside risk for 24 °C or higher under current steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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