Diverging short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center creates the near-even split between a minimum of 20°C or higher (44.5%) and 10°C or below (42.0%), as late-August Moscow sits at the climatological transition from summer warmth to sharper nocturnal cooling. Key variables include cloud cover modulating longwave radiative losses, boundary-layer wind speeds limiting mixing, and potential advection of cooler continental or maritime air masses that could drop overnight lows several degrees below the typical 13–15°C baseline. Recent model runs show notable spread in 2-meter temperature forecasts for the 23rd, with some solutions favoring clearer skies and calm conditions that enhance cooling while others retain cloudiness and mild flow. Traders are closely monitoring the next 48-hour update cycles ahead of resolution, when official station data from Moscow will confirm the actual minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 23?
20°C or higher 88%
10°C or below 42%
15°C 20%
16°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
10°C or below
42%
11°C
19%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
19%
15°C
20%
16°C
20%
17°C
19%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
88%
20°C or higher 88%
10°C or below 42%
15°C 20%
16°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
42%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$15 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C
$25 Vol.
19%
19°C
$30 Vol.
19%
20°C or higher
$27 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center creates the near-even split between a minimum of 20°C or higher (44.5%) and 10°C or below (42.0%), as late-August Moscow sits at the climatological transition from summer warmth to sharper nocturnal cooling. Key variables include cloud cover modulating longwave radiative losses, boundary-layer wind speeds limiting mixing, and potential advection of cooler continental or maritime air masses that could drop overnight lows several degrees below the typical 13–15°C baseline. Recent model runs show notable spread in 2-meter temperature forecasts for the 23rd, with some solutions favoring clearer skies and calm conditions that enhance cooling while others retain cloudiness and mild flow. Traders are closely monitoring the next 48-hour update cycles ahead of resolution, when official station data from Moscow will confirm the actual minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$103End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center creates the near-even split between a minimum of 20°C or higher (44.5%) and 10°C or below (42.0%), as late-August Moscow sits at the climatological transition from summer warmth to sharper nocturnal cooling. Key variables include cloud cover modulating longwave radiative losses, boundary-layer wind speeds limiting mixing, and potential advection of cooler continental or maritime air masses that could drop overnight lows several degrees below the typical 13–15°C baseline. Recent model runs show notable spread in 2-meter temperature forecasts for the 23rd, with some solutions favoring clearer skies and calm conditions that enhance cooling while others retain cloudiness and mild flow. Traders are closely monitoring the next 48-hour update cycles ahead of resolution, when official station data from Moscow will confirm the actual minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$103End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Diverging short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center creates the near-even split between a minimum of 20°C or higher (44.5%) and 10°C or below (42.0%), as late-August Moscow sits at the climatological transition from summer warmth to sharper nocturnal cooling. Key variables include cloud cover modulating longwave radiative losses, boundary-layer wind speeds limiting mixing, and potential advection of cooler continental or maritime air masses that could drop overnight lows several degrees below the typical 13–15°C baseline. Recent model runs show notable spread in 2-meter temperature forecasts for the 23rd, with some solutions favoring clearer skies and calm conditions that enhance cooling while others retain cloudiness and mild flow. Traders are closely monitoring the next 48-hour update cycles ahead of resolution, when official station data from Moscow will confirm the actual minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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